The Pick presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Aslan Karatsev vs. Sebastian Korda, ATP Paris

While Korda has yet to drop a set to Karatsev in two matches, it appears the Russian is in a much better physical state at the tail end of the lengthy season.

ByCale Hammond

Published Oct 31, 2021

Tennis Channel Live: Aslan Karatsev Wins Moscow

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The 11-month tennis season is one of the ultimate grinds in all professional sports. While the players do receive the luxury of choosing their own schedule, when you begin the year at 119 and 112 in the world, like Sebastian Korda and Aslan Karatsev, respectively, you are playing any and all ATP tournaments that you qualify for.

It’s been an equally impressive year for both players, as the Russian is currently ranked 19 in the world, while Korda is no. 38. The American presents a bad matchup for Karatsev, as his refusal to yield the baseline doesn’t allow Karatsev to rip sharp angled shots to gain control of the point. After beating Karatsev in straight sets at the 2020 French Open qualifying, Korda delivered Karatsev arguably his biggest beatdown of the season in Miami, winning 6-3, 6-0, in just over an hour.

According to the oddsmakers, Karatsev is listed as a -180 favorite and projected to win by 2.5 games. Opposing Korda this year has been an extremely unprofitable strategy, but it does appear the 21-year-old, still very much growing into his 6’5” frame, is understandably worn down. Since his fourth-round run at Wimbledon, Korda is just 3-5 in the second half of the season, while Karatsev is on an 8-2 run, including a title in Moscow, in his last 10 matches.

Karatsev should be fresh and motivated after capturing his hometown title in Moscow two weeks ago.

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Opposing a player of Korda’s talent is dangerous, therefore all bets should be on the smaller side, but there is definitely some serious value on the Russian to cover his 2.5 game spread. This bet is based purely on the current physical condition of the two players, as Karatsev and his Hulk-like lower body appear primed for a strong finish, while Korda seems ready to return to Bradenton for some much needed rest and recovery before gearing up for what will likely be a stellar 2022 season.

The courts in Paris are notoriously slow, which won’t do Korda many favors. If the American is unable to earn free points on serve, there is a chance Karatsev, knowing full well how dangerous Korda can be, will run away with this one.

The Pick: Karatsev -2.5 games (-115)

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