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On Saturday night, tennis fans will get to witness an exciting showdown between world No. 12 Cameron Norrie and world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev in the Los Cabos Open final. Norrie, who earned a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win over world No. 9 Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals, is the defending champion at this event. The Brit has also been fortunate not to face anybody of Medvedev’s caliber in this tournament between this year and last year. He’ll really need to level up in order to take home back-to-back trophies in Mexico. And all things considered, we’re skeptical about his chances.

While Norrie has already done a lot to prove that this is an event that perfectly suits his strengths, there just isn’t a whole lot that the lefty can do at a higher level than Medvedev. Norrie's best asset in this particular match-up is his high on-court IQ, which played a big part in allowing him to finally solve the Auger-Aliassime puzzle. (Which we predicted.) Prior to last night’s victory, Norrie had lost all four of his previous encounters with the 21-year-old. But Medvedev is better than Auger-Aliassime across the board, and the way he moves for a guy his size can be especially demoralizing.

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We’ve built up a nice bankroll with our recent stretch: 42-20 for +18.98 units since the start of April.

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Norrie will probably work hard to keep Medvedev moving, as the Brit’s ability to handle the humidity in Los Cabos is something that should theoretically be an advantage for him. Medvedev had previously struggled with high temperatures and thicker air in previous years, so it wouldn’t be crazy for Norrie to take that approach. But winning the 2021 US Open and making back-to-back finals at the Australian Open has shown that Medvedev has gotten over those issues. He may not look entirely comfortable when he’s out there, but we know he can handle these conditions—especially in a best-of-three match.

The reality here is that there’s a reason Medvedev was able to earn a 6-3, 6-1 win over Norrie in their only previous encounter, which took place in Shanghai back in 2019. The Russian is just far too talented for his opponent in this one, with the edge in both speed and power. He’s also the far better server between these two, and his range gives him the ability to do significant damage as a returner. That’ll present some serious problems for Norrie.

It's also worth noting that Medvedev has lost in each of his previous three finals appearances, so he will undoubtedly be locked in for this one. The 26-year-old is going to be eager to show that he can get over the finish line again, and that increase in focus should ensure that there aren’t any slip-ups. For that reason, we’re rolling with Medvedev on the alternate game spread of -2.5. The -180 odds are obviously a little hard to stomach, but it’s much safer than taking -3.5 at -125 odds. And we’ve built up a nice bankroll with our recent stretch: 42-20 for +18.98 units since the start of April.

The Pick: Medvedev -2.5 games (-180)