The Pick Miami Alcaraz Kecmanovic QF

There might not be a better performance all year than the one world No. 16 Carlos Alcaraz put forth in his 7-5, 6-3 win over world No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Miami Open on Tuesday. The Spaniard put on a shotmaking clinic, showing everybody watching—or even just scrolling through social media—how talented he really is.

Now the 18-year-old will look to keep the momentum going against world No. 48 Miomir Kecmanovic, who came back from a set down to eliminate Indian Wells champion and world No. 13 Taylor Fritz on Tuesday. Kecmanovic is a really underrated player on the ATP Tour, but he’s starting to make his presence felt this year. The 22-year-old is an impressive 19-6, and has done a lot of that damage on hard courts.

The issue for Kecmanovic is that he looked gassed in his meeting with Fritz on Tuesday. Fortunately for the Serbian, his opponent crumbled even more under the humid conditions—or was just out of steam after a title run in the desert. But it's still hard to see how Kecmanovic will muster up the energy required to take even a set from Alcaraz, who is in better shape than most. Thursday night’s forecast calls for similar conditions, but there should be a little more wind.


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Kecmanovic’s first instinct will be to try to end points quickly, but Alcaraz is arguably the fastest player in the world. There’s no such thing as an easy point against the 18-year-old, who will chase down everything, and possibly even turn them into winners. That’s exactly what he did against Tsitsipas, and it ended up getting in the Greek's head a bit.

On top of that, the way Alcaraz plays the game is incredibly endearing. He has given these Miami crowds a lot to cheer about, and they’ll be there again to give him the energy he needs to make quick work of his opponent—knowing they may be witnessing the path to Alcaraz's first big title. Overall, the talent mismatch is pretty sizable between these two, and the conditions will also be favoring the better player. Kecmanovic is just running into an absolute buzzsaw, and that’s why Alcaraz is such a heavy favorite to reach the semifinals.

For bettors, the -650 moneyline is almost impossible to back in this match, unless you’re choosing to parlay it with another player to win. But Alcaraz to win in straight sets isn’t horrible value at -245, so we’re rolling with that.

The Pick: Alcaraz To Win 2-0 (-245)