The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Rafael Nadal, Indian Wells

On Saturday, world No. 4 Rafael Nadal puts his perfect 19-0 record for the 2022 season on the line against world No. 19 Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. This should be one of the most exciting matches of the entire tournament, with Alcaraz having spent his entire life idolizing the 21-time Grand Slam champion. You’ll notice a lot of similarities between these two when they take the court for this massive match-up, all the way down to the sleeveless Nike shirts and massive biceps—but the one thing Alcaraz can’t replicate is Nadal’s experience.

While Alcaraz has won two titles in his young career, he hasn’t yet experienced a breakthrough at an event quite as big as this one. And although that type of win is surely approaching rapidly, it’s hard to ask the teenager to do it against an opponent as good as Nadal. The 35-year-old has yet to lose a match in the 2022 season, and he has already added an Australian Open title to his trophy case—as well as another at the Mexican Open.

Nadal’s three-set win over Nick Kyrgios likely has him feeling a little fatigued after he battled his way to a two-set win over Reilly Opelka by winning two tiebreakers. Nadal has been dealing with some pain in his foot for quite some time now, which is yet another obstacle he has to overcome. The legend is, however, going to want to win this match badly, as he’ll want to show Alcaraz that he’s not ready to take the torch from him just yet.

In the first and only meeting between these two players, it was Nadal that emerged with a 6-1, 6-2 victory in Madrid back in May 2021. Alcaraz’s serve just wasn’t up to par in that match, and that could be another deciding factor when these two meet in the desert. Alcaraz has worked hard to improve his serve in the past year, and he has seen some good results with it thus far. However, Nadal is one of the best returners in the game, and he’s surely going to have some break point opportunities here.

The nerves that come with playing against a player you look up to could also end up dooming Alcaraz in this one. At some point in the match, you can expect the youngster’s level to rise to that of Nadal’s. But it could take some time for him to settle in, and Nadal could already be up a set by the time that happens.

It wouldn’t be all that surprising if this match ended up getting somewhat tense, with a third set not being out of the realm of possibility. But how can you pass up Nadal as such a small moneyline favorite? He’s the better player, has much more experience, and won the only singles match these two have ever played against each other. There’s just no reason to go against all of that.

The Pick: Nadal To Win (-165)