pick

We went with a Frenchman to win a set in yesterday's Pick, but Adrian Mannarino ended up blowing opportunity after opportunity against Hubert Hurkacz and wasn’t able to get the job done. But it’s important to have a short memory in sports betting, so we’re not shying away from a similar bet on the Wednesday slate. That’s why we’re looking to world No. 64 Corentin Moutet to win at least one set in a meeting with world No. 13 Cameron Norrie at the Rolex Paris Masters.

Moutet had to go through qualifying at this event, and then earned a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over world No. 26 Borna Coric in the main draw. Coric had been looking very dangerous coming into this tournament, fresh off a run to the semifinals in Vienna, where he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz. The Frenchman will now be feeling very good about his game when he goes out there and takes on Norrie.

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Norrie hasn’t been playing very well heading into this event: he's just 5-6 in his last 11 matches. The Brit was especially shaky in Vienna, where he needed three sets to beat defeat world No. 55 Pedro Cachin, and then lost in straight sets to world No. 52 Marcos Giron. Norrie did end up earning a 6-2, 6-4 win over world No. 29 Miomir Kecmanovic in the first round of this event, but the Serbian had also been playing some miserable tennis before arriving in Paris. So, it’s not easy to put a lot of stock into that performance.

It also should be mentioned that Moutet has always been pretty good at getting into his opponent’s serve. When you combine that with the fact that the home crowd will be urging Moutet on, it isn’t hard to see why we believe this will end up being a competitive match. We wouldn’t hate it if you threw a little something on Moutet to win this match outright—those +180 odds are enticing enough for a quarter-unit play—but we’d strongly suggest going with the safer play of the Frenchman forcing a decider, at the very least.

The Pick: Moutet To Win A Set (-140)