Not many people expected world No. 23 Elena Rybakina to make it to the Wimbledon final, but here we are. The Kazakh will now face world No. 2 Ons Jabeur, who has been on a surge nearly all season, with both players searching for their first Grand Slam titles. It’ll be a refreshing sight to see for tennis fans around the world, as it has been quite some time since world No. 1 Iga Swiatek didn’t win a big tournament.

Jabeur is one of the main casualties of Swiatek’s dominance. The Tunisian was unable to defeat Swiatek in the Rome final, depriving her of a trophy when she was playing better than 99% of the other women on tour. Now, Jabeur gets a shot at a major and doesn’t have to face the most dominant player in tennis. With that being the case, it might seem easy to make the obvious decision to back Jabeur in this match. But it just isn’t that simple when considering how these two have looked in London thus far.


Rybakina has already earned wins over Bianca Andreescu and Simona Halep in this tournament, with both of those victories ending in straight sets. The only player that has taken a set from her in London so far is Ajla Tomljanovic, who had been playing rather well herself. There isn’t a player on tour that has more aces than Rybakina this season, and that has been the ultimate weapon for her at the All England Club. Grass-court tennis strongly favors the best servers and an argument can be made that Rybakina is one of the best in the world in that regard right now. She’s also not doing anything to beat herself from the baseline, which is making it nearly impossible for her opponents to get an inch against her.

If Rybakina can stay hot with the ball on her racquet, it’s hard to see her losing this match. For as good as Jabeur is, she does tend to let some games get away from her; she lost a set to Tatjana Maria, who she is superior to in every facet of the game. The Tunisian can’t afford to let Rybakina get more than a break or two in this match, as it’ll just be too hard for Jabeur to get things back on serve.

These two are 1-1 in completed matches, but they've never met on grass. This surface couldn’t possibly suit Rybakina better with the way she is playing coming into this one, and that is why the value is just too good to pass up on her pulling off this upset. While Rybakina hasn’t ever played in a match this big, the same can really be said for Jabeur. With the pressure going both ways, we’re just rolling with the player with the momentum right now, and Rybakina has all of it.

The Pick: Rybakina To Win (+135)