The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Holger Rune vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Paris

In a meeting between two of the hottest young players on the planet, world No. 8 Felix Auger-Aliassime will take on world No. 18 Holger Rune for a spot in the final of the Rolex Paris Masters. Auger-Aliassime has won each of the last three tournaments he has played, with the most recent thank to a 6-3, 7-5 final-round win over Rune in Basel.

This is going to be a highly anticipated rematch, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not Rune gets his revenge. We’re betting he won’t.

Rune face world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, and won the first set 6-3. He then had a 3-1 lead in a second-set tiebreaker before Alcaraz retired with what looked like an abdominal injury. But Rune looked like he was well on his way to winning that match, and it just wouldn’t be fair to say he got by his rival due to an injury. It is fair to wonder, though, how he will respond his next time out. That match clearly meant a lot to Rune, and getting by means that he could be in a letdown spot against Auger-Aliassime. That’s not where you want to be considering how locked in the Canadian is.

Auger-Aliassime has quickly become one of the ATP Tour’s elite servers; his hold percentage is up at a ridiculous 86.3% this season. His first-serve percentage has been at least 67.8% in each of his four matches in Paris thus far, despite the fact that his percentage for the season is 64.3%. That means that the Canadian has taken his already remarkable serving to another level at this Masters 1000 event. That’s pretty important to note when looking at this match, as it’s clear that Auger-Aliassime is present in the moment and not letting his status for the looming ATP Finals get in his head.

Rune is a very good server in his own right, but he doesn’t belong in the same conversation as Auger-Aliassime. That showed in their most recent matchup, where the Canadian broke him twice. That massive edge with the ball on his racquet is just hard to overlook when you also consider that Auger-Aliassime is every bit as good, if not better, than Rune from the baseline. All in all, the Danish youngster just doesn’t have any glaring advantages in this matchup with Auger-Aliassime, which makes it hard to shy away from backing the Canadian as a small, three-game favorite.

Playing the moneyline is the preferred way to go in a meeting between two good players, but it’s just hard to lay the odds on Auger-Aliassime to win outright. And over the course of a three-set match, most winners will cover a small game spread like this one.

The Pick: Auger-Aliassime Minus Three Games (-110)