The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Jessica Pegula vs. Paula Badosa, Miami

Paula Badosa has been a force on the WTA tour since last fall, having played some of the best and most consistent tennis in the world. But the sixth-ranked Spaniard will have a tough match-up in the Miami Open quarterfinals against world No. 21 Jessica Pegula. Neither player has dropped a set in South Beach, so you know both of them are going to be feeling confident.

The oddsmakers seem to believe this is going to be a lopsided affair, but we don’t necessarily agree. Badosa is most commonly a 3.5-game favorite in this match, but she was also laying 4.5 at pretty reasonable odds. (Check to see if it's still available.) The odds on Pegula not winning a set in this match are also just +140, which doesn’t show much faith in the American making this competitive.

Pegula's second serve has been an issue for her in the past, but it has looked a lot better in recent weeks—and it hasn’t been a problem for her in Miami at all. That could be an X-factor in this match, but the conditions are going to be the main story. Pegula, who lives in Florida, is used to the state's heat and humidity, and this match will start at 1 p.m. At the same time, we’ve seen Badosa struggle with heat before.

One of Badosa’s strengths is her aggressive ball-striking, but Pegula isn’t likely to be bothered by that. The 28-year-old likes to utilize some spin, but she also isn’t afraid to be aggressive and try to win quick points. And she’ll be especially assertive when she gets a chance to see Badosa’s second serve, as she knows that the Spaniard’s first serve is pretty close to untouchable.

Overall, this could be a match in which Badosa comes through—there’s a reason she’s favored by so much against another great player—but Pegula has a chance to win a set, and it’d be surprising if she can’t keep this somewhat close. The crowd will likely be behind her, and we're backing her as well.

The Pick: Pegula +3.5 Games (-130)