Felix Auger-Aliassime made us look bad with his 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 win over Daniel Evans in the third round, as we backed the Brit as a +100 underdog. It is, however, extremely important to have a short memory when betting on sports, which is why we’re not letting that result scare us away from a play we like in the Canadian’s fourth-round match-up against former world No. 3—and 2014 US Open champion, and 2018 Australian Open runner-up—Marin Cilic.
While Auger-Aliassime has been remarkable to this point in the tournament, the same can be said for the big Croatian. Cilic’s 7-5, 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-3 win over world No. 6 Andrey Rublev in the third round was more impressive than anything that his opponent has done in Melbourne thus far. Cilic wasn’t even serving all that well in the win over Rublev, but he had 55 winners to just 41 unforced errors in that match. His booming forehand was on full display and he was moving around the court without difficulty.
Cilic is clearly the healthiest he’s been since 2018, and that has to strike some fear into Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian played a flawless match against Evans on Saturday; his power was simply too much for his opponent in that one. Not only was Auger-Aliassime serving well, but he was also painting lines with his forehand. Evans just wasn’t strong enough to keep the Canadian on his toes, but that won’t be the case in this match.
It’s been quite some time since we last saw Cilic playing at a high level on a big stage, but the 33-year-old looks ready to continue making some noise Down Under. Cilic did a really good job of making Rublev work in his service games, as the Croatian saw eight break point opportunities in that match. If he’s doing a decent job of returning, he’s going to be an extremely tough out the rest of the way.
Auger-Aliassime might have been in a zone against Evans last match, but Cilic isn’t going to let him get that comfortable. The Croatian will use his forehand to move the 21-year-old all over the court, and he’s going to have him behind in points rather often.
These two met one another in June of last year, when Cilic earned a 7-6 (2), 6-3 win over Auger-Aliassime in the MercedesCup in Stuttgart. Cilic overpowered the youngster in that match, and he should be able to do so again here—the best-of-five format favors Marin, I believe. The Croatian is 3-0 in his career in this head-to-head series, and we’re rolling with him as an underdog to keep that record unblemished.
The Pick: Marin Cilic To Win (+120)