The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Nick Kyrgios vs. Sebastian Baez, Indian Wells

No matter what Nick Kyrgios is ranked—132nd in the world, at the moment—he remains one of the main attractions whenever he takes the court. His natural ability is Top 10 level, though as we've seen many times, that doesn't always come through. The Australian also happens to have a pretty reasonable draw at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which should make for some interesting viewing.

The 26-year-old does, however, have to get by world No. 60 Sebastian Baez before we start thinking about any type of extended run in the desert.

Baez is the 60th-ranked player in the men’s game for a reason. Despite his smaller stature, the Argentinean is a smart player with an elite ability to get himself around the court and rally. Baez isn’t that different from countryman Diego Schwartzman, but the 21-year-old isn’t as proven as a hard-court player. That’s ultimately one of the reasons to trust in Kyrgios in this match.

Baez has primarily made a name for himself on clay, and his game isn’t exactly one that will strike fear into Kyrgios on a faster surface. Baez doesn’t have a great serve, which should give Kyrgios a chance to earn some break-point opportunities. Also, Kyrgios won’t shy away from trying to rip the cover off the ball in an effort to put some points away early. With the way Baez plays certain shots, Kyrgios could see some higher, slower balls that he’ll be able to punish with his forehand.

There’s also the fact that Kyrgios’ serve can be really hard to get into when he’s dialed in. That contrast between the way these two perform with the ball on their racquets could ultimately go a long way when talking about a game spread.

Riding with Kyrgios at -200 to win on the moneyline is a little too rich for our blood, but 2.5 games is a very small spread with a weak server like Baez. It wouldn’t be surprising if one lopsided set ends up being the difference for Kyrgios bettors, even if this one ends up going to a decider. However, we’re not expecting that to happen. Kyrgios is as healthy as he’s been in a while, and he has been enjoying the game a bit more with his involvement in doubles. That should ultimately translate to better singles play, and a cover here.

The Pick: Kyrgios -2.5 Games (-105)