The world’s top two players will face off on Sunday for the Paris Rolex Masters championship. Daniil Medvedev is the defending champion, while Novak Djokovic—who secured his seventh year-end No. 1 finish by beating Hubert Hurkacz 7-6 in the third on Saturday—has won this event five times before.

Despite his nearly two months away from competition, the Serb accumulated little rust, and his movement around the court is as impressive as ever. But so is Medvedev's, who found his “how do you even win a point against this guy” mode during his 6-2, 6-2, obliteration of Alexander Zverev in the second semifinal.

According to the oddsmakers, Medvedev is listed as a slight -123 favorite. Djokovic leads the head-to-head by five wins to four, but lost his most important matchup in the 2021 US Open final in straight sets, ending his hopes for a calendar-year Grand Slam.

Advertising

Daniil Medvedev lost just four games against Alexander Zverev on Saturday.

Daniil Medvedev lost just four games against Alexander Zverev on Saturday. 

Betting this matchup is extremely difficult, so please make sure any bets placed are on the small side.

After his 7-6 (5), 6-4, victory over Hugo Gaston on Friday, Medvedev complained about the court’s rather slow speed. But no matter the speed of the court, Medvedev is extremely difficult to beat on an indoor hard court. There aren’t many answers to his unique combination of huge serving, incredible range, and endurance.

Betting the over 23 game total is probably the safer play, but Medvedev tends to raise his level at the end of the season, and has youth on his side. In 2020 he won Paris and went on to win the ATP Finals, and he may repeat the feat again this year.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev -1 games (-110)