GettyImages-1172863639

World No. 7 Matteo Berrettini was one of our favorite pre-tournament bets to win the Australian Open, and he's done nothing but embolden our selection with his play. But he’ll run into a major challenge on Friday: 20-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard hasn’t been lights-out in Melbourne thus far, but he knows how high the stakes are right now. This is arguably the 35-year-old’s best chance to win a major away from Roland Garros, with Novak Djokovic not in the field and Alexander Zverev already eliminated. With that in mind, you can expect him to compete his tail off here.

Both of these players come into this match on the heels of some grueling five-setters, with Berrettini beating world No. 20 Gael Monfils, 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 3-6, 6-2, and Nadal earning a 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3 win over world No. 14 Denis Shapovalov. The extra day off should do wonders for each of them, but Nadal’s health is something that is worth shining a light on. He recently tested positive for COVID-19, and he hasn’t quite looked as fit as usual Down Under. Against Shapovalov, the Spaniard was struggling with the elements and suffered a noticeable dip in quality in the third and fourth sets. That’s something that just can’t be ignored in this match, and it’s one of the main reasons to buy into Berrettini’s chances of really threatening Rafa here.

The Italian does, however, have some issues of his own coming into this semifinal. Berrettini has blown sizable leads throughout this tournament—twice he led by two sets, but needed a fifth set to win—and his backhand has let him down rather often. The 25-year-old has had stretches where he’s really struggled to clear the net with that shot, and that’s the one thing holding us back from going all in on the Italian to pull off the upset here.

Given all of that information, the best bet on the board for this important showdown is the Over on the game total. With Berrettini’s booming first serve and powerful forehand, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Italian doesn’t win at least one set. He’s a better player than Shapovalov, who gave Nadal all he could handle. At the same time, there’s just no way Nadal is going to go down without a fight with another Grand Slam title on the line. Even if the Spaniard doesn’t have his best stuff out there, he’ll grind his way to at least a set.

If both of these players win at least one set, it’s extremely unlikely that this Over will not cash. This is essentially a bet on four competitive sets played, but these odds are a heck of a lot better than the -200 you’d have to lay on there to be Over 3.5 sets.

The Pick: Over 38.5 Games (-125)