Taylor Fritz has officially gone nuclear in the desert. Struggling to find his best form prior to the tournament, Fritz has obliterated his last three opponents—Jannik Sinner, Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima—without dropping a set. In fact, Fritz has yet to lose more than four games in a single set.

Down 2-4 in the first set to Sinner, one could argue that Fritz summoned the best tennis of his life. In the blink of an eye, Fritz turned his 2-4 deficit into a 6-4, 4-0, scoreline. It’s worth noting that Sinner did not play badly. Though the Italian’s tactics and inability to change up the pace and spin left a little to be desired, the American couldn’t miss the ball if he tried.

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Fritz will now take on Alexander Zverev for a spot in his first Masters 1000 semifinal. According to the oddsmakers, Fritz is listed as a +400 underdog, and projected to lose by 4.5 total games.

There’s no question Zverev deserves extreme favoritism, as beating him seems borderline impossible these days (he’s 13-1 since Wimbledon). But after the level Fritz displayed in his straight-set beatdowns over Sinner and Berrettini, I’m not sure he should be +4.5 games against anyone in the world in a best of three set match in these current conditions.

Normally I would advise you to bet small during such a wild and unpredictable tournament, but with Fritz’s current level, combined with a 4.5 game cushion, feel free to hit this bet as hard as you’d like.

The Pick: Taylor Fritz +4.5 games (-160)