Thursday’s schedule in Canada is loaded with matches you’ll want to be watching, whether that’s in Montreal or Toronto. We’re zeroing in on the men's event, as the meeting between world No. 34 Tommy Paul and world No. 16 Marin Cilic in the National Bank Open's round of 16 looks like a serious opportunity to make some money.

If you haven’t been paying much attention to this tournament thus far, you might have missed Tommy Paul coming from a set down to earn a 6-7 (4), 7-6 (7), 6-3 win over world No. 4 Carlos Alcaraz. That was probably the biggest win of the 25-year-old’s career. It should also be exciting for bettors, as it can be extremely profitable betting against players in let-down spots. Sometimes it can be hard to calm yourself down after an emotional win like that, leaving players vulnerable their next match out.

While Paul’s win over Alcaraz was wildly impressive, it’s important not to overreact to that match and to simply remember who he is. Paul is no slouch out there on the court, but calling him “solid” is probably the best way to describe him. And when he’s opposite Cilic, it’s just hard to envision many ways in which Paul can get the better of his opponent.


Cilic is 2-0 against Paul, with one of those wins being a 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 victory over the American back in January. Both matches also happened to come on hard courts, where the Croatian has a remarkable 352-197 record in tour-level matches. He’s just a fantastic hard-court player, and he is also 23-14 in 2022 thus far. That 62.2% win percentage is the highest Cilic has had since 2018, so this version of the 33-year-old is one that should give Paul a lot of problems. And Cilic doesn't have a win against a player of Alcaraz's caliber in Montreal, he has looked good in his own right at this event. He has already earned wins over Borna Coric and world No. 28 Karen Khachanov this week, each by a 6-3, 6-2 score.

The main advantage the Croatian will have in this match is just his sheer power. Paul can't come close to matching the pace that Cilic can put on the ball, and the Croatian is going to look to hit him off the floor. The 2014 US Open champion also has the bigger serve between these two. It’s not a huge advantage on that front, but any small difference is pivotal if they ultimately go to a tiebreaker at some point.

It's just a little surprising to see the way this match is priced, as Cilic is the superior player and you won’t have to pay up to back him. Let’s get this price while we can and hope the oddsmakers don’t see something that we don’t.

The Pick: Cilic To Win (-145)