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The dream season for Nick Kyrgios—and his longtime supporters—continues, as the Australian will meet world No. 96 Yoshihito Nishioka in the Citi Open final. Kyrgios is fresh off a run to the Wimbledon final, where he fell short in an extremely competitive four-set match against world No. 6 Novak Djokovic. Now, Kyrgios has to be feeling good about his shot at taking home a trophy in Washington, D.C. From a talent perspective, he’s a lot better than his opponent in this one.

All things considered, it’s just really hard to see Kyrgios losing this match. The 27-year-old is one of the best servers on the planet, and he just has a wild advantage in the power department against his opponent in this one. The only thing that can really prevent Kyrgios from ultimately winning this title would be himself. If he overlooks his opponent or spends too much time doing some unnecessary barking, he could give Nishioka an opening. And while we do think he’d be fine even in the event that happened, betting on Nishioka to take advantage of those moments might be the best thing you can do in this match.

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The Over 2.5 sets in this match pays out at some incredible odds, and it’s really not that crazy to think it’ll hit. Kyrgios’ serve is pretty much too good to even make Nishioka winning in straight sets a possibility.

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The Over 2.5 sets in this match pays out at some incredible odds, and it’s really not that crazy to think it’ll hit. Kyrgios’ serve is pretty much too good to even make Nishioka winning in straight sets a possibility. So, what we’re really banking on is Nishioka to win a set, and the odds on the Over in total sets are a lot better than they are on him to just win one on his own (+145). Nishioka also happens to be playing some fantastic tennis right now, which makes this even more enticing.

This week alone, Nishioka has earned wins over Jenson Brooksby, Alex De Minaur, Karen Khachanov, Daniel Evans and Andrey Rublev. In three of those five victories, the southpaw didn’t even need a deciding set to advance. The win over Rublev is especially important, as there are some similarities in how powerful and talented the Russian and Kyrgios are. If Nishioka can just keep his head down and focus on holding his own serve, he should have some opportunities in this match.

Kyrgios occasionally falls behind in service games and Nishioka is just a good enough player from the baseline to make him pay for that once or twice. He might not be a legitimate threat to win, but he has what it takes to make it a little more difficult on Kyrgios than the Australian is expecting. That’s why we’re throwing a half of a unit on this great payout. This match isn’t worth risking anything big because of the discrepancy between the two players, but we can make money on it.

The Pick: Over 2.5 Sets (+200) – Half unit