The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas, ATP Finals

In a round-robin match-up between two young players that genuinely feel old at this point, tennis fans will get to see world No. 5 Daniil Medvedev take on world No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas at the ATP Finals. Both come into this meeting in serious need of a victory, as Tsitsipas lost in straight sets against Novak Djokovic in his first match in Turin, while Medvedev lost to Andrey Rublev after having won the opening set.

This will be the 11th tour-level match that these two have played against one another, and Medvedev has gotten the best of this head-to-head series, 7-3. It was, however, Tsitsipas that won a tight three-setter when they most recently clashed, in Cincinnati back in August. Tsitsipas is also 3-2 in the last five matches that they have played.

We’re actually going to go the cowardly route and not even try and pick a winner for this one, as we genuinely feel this can go either way. But we do see Tsitsipas, who is the underdog in the match, making it competitive at the very least. And being that you can get him to win a set at -145, it’s just hard not to take it.

Tsitsipas’ tournament would essentially be over if he were to lose this match in straight sets, so you won’t see him tanking a set to preserve his energy. He needs to get himself on the board after having been thoroughly dominated by Djokovic, and there’s just nothing to suggest that the Greek isn’t capable of that. In each of their last three meetings, Tsitsipas has won at least one set.

It also can’t be ignored that Medvedev just didn’t look quite like himself later in the match against Rublev. The 2021 US Open champion is normally as reliable as they come in longer rallies, but it was Rublev that was getting the better of those exchanges in the second and third sets. Medvedev was just a little loose with his shots, and that makes it hard to trust him to win in straight sets against Tsitsipas right now.

Tsitsipas might not be lifting many trophies recently, but he has kept his competitive fire throughout a tough portion of the season. We saw that when he used the crowd to help him rally against Djokovic in a close loss in Paris, and he unsuccessfully attempted the same thing against the Serbian in his first match here. This late in the season, it’s important to be betting on players that have a burning desire to win. And we’ve seen a lot more fight in Tsitsipas than we have in Medvedev lately, making it an easy decision to back him to simply win one set.

The Pick: Tsitsipas To Win A Set (-145)