The Pick Wimby QF Nadal Fritz

It was nearly four months ago when Taylor Fritz ended Rafael Nadal's perfect start to 2022 in becoming the unlikely BNP Paribas Open champion at Indian Wells. Fritz was a +265 underdog in that match, but he now finds himself at only +215 to defeat his legendary opponent in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. The oddsmakers are clearly showing the American a little more respect after his performance in the California desert, and it’s hard to say that Fritz doesn’t deserve that.

Fritz is in the midst of both a career-best year and a remarkable run in London right now. The 24-year-old hasn’t dropped a set at the All England Club thus far, and it’s not that surprising when you factor in his style of play. Fritz has one of the best serves in the world right now, and he also possesses a solid baseline game for a player his size. Despite the fact that he stands at 6-foot-5, the world No. 14 has a decent set of wheels that allow him to win long rallies at a higher rate than most other big servers. The power he generates in all areas make him such a force on the grass and it doesn’t hurt that his draw has been kind up until this point.


Nadal has also looked sharp since arriving at SW19, as he has lost only two sets total across his four wins to this point. The Spaniard’s straight-set win over Botic van De Zandschulp in the round of 16 was particularly impressive, and the 36-year-old is looking like he has a real shot to win this tournament for the first time in 12 years. Nadal does, however, have to go through an opponent owning the type of game that has given him trouble in the past. And while the Spaniard could ultimately end up winning this one and going through to the semis, it’s just hard to see how he’ll do so without Fritz putting up a fight.

These two will clash on a surface that probably favors Fritz even more than the hard courts in Indian Wells did. Even if winning this match is too tall an order for the 24-year-old, it's hard to see a scenario in which he doesn’t win at least a set or two when factoring in his a) recent experience of beating the left-hander and; b) current eight-match win streak on grass following his Eastbourne triumph (his second in three years). Nadal is still one of the top players on the planet, but he can occasionally let a service game or two slip away at this point in his career. Against a competitor with a serve as dominant as Fritz’s, that could come back to haunt the man seeking his third major title of the season.

Being that Fritz is in good position to make this a four or five-set clash, it’s just hard not to like the Over on the game total. It’ll be really hard for this one not to go Over the number if this match ends up advancing to a fourth set, and that seems like the worst-case scenario here. This showdown has a real chance of going the distance, and it could also feature a tiebreaker or two on its way. With that in mind, just play the Over, sit back and relax while watching this quarterfinal unfold. If this ends up being an extended battle, you won’t want to have to worry about who emerges as the winner.

The Pick: Over 38.5 Games (-115)