Three to See, Australian Open Day 2: Rublev vs. Thiem; Fernandez vs. Cornet; Berrettini vs. Murray

Andrey Rublev vs. Dominic Thiem

Normally, we would think of Rublev and Thiem as two of the contenders for the Australian Open title. Rublev has become a fixture in the Top 10, and Thiem was one set from winning it all in Melbourne three years ago. Right now, though, the Russian and the Austrian are just two guys trying to win their first match of 2023.

Thiem is 0-1 on the season; watching him lose 4 and 1 to Soon-Woo Kwon in Adelaide, it felt like he had given back all of the momentum he gained in his comeback last fall. More surprising, though, is Rublev’s 0-2 start. He lost 6-4 in the third to Roberto Bautista Agut and 6-3 in the third to Thanasi Kokkinakis. Both times he was outplayed down the stretch by players ranked well below him.

Rublev is 25 and Thiem 29, but it feels as if they’re from different generations. They’ve played six times, and Rublev has won the last four without dropping a set. Despite that, Thiem still has the better pedigree and the higher talent ceiling, and he should be the crowd’s sentimental favorite in this day-session opener in John Cain Arena. Winner: Thiem

Alizé Cornet vs. Leylah Fernandez

Cornet and Fernandez aren’t seeded and they haven’t commanded a prime court assignment. They’re up bright and early, at 11 a.m. on Court 3. But this Franco-Canadian clash has potential. Both women have been darlings of recent majors: Fernandez charmed New York on her way to the US Open final in 2021, while Cornet reached the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of her long and dogged career at last year’s Australian Open.

Neither woman will give an inch, and, just as important from an entertainment perspective, neither woman will be able to blow the other off the court. At 5’8”, the Frenchwoman has two inches on the Canadian. Both women win by disrupting the normal patterns of their opponents, rather than overpowering them, and both have a high tennis IQ. Cornet is an accomplished doubles player who can mix in every type of shot, while Fernandez is one of the sport’s premier counterpunchers. Fernandez won their only meeting, at Indian Wells two years ago, but I’ll take Cornet in the place where she has had her greatest Grand Slam success. Winner: Cornet

Matteo Berrettini vs. Andy Murray

Tough early-round matches have been a drag on Murray’s long-running attempt to reclaim his past glory. The draw gods have struck again in Melbourne, where he’ll face the man who knocked him out of the last major, the US Open, in four sets. The 35-year-old Murray has been a runner-up five times Down Under. Is there any way he gets out of the first round this year?

We can start by saying that Berrettini hasn’t done all that much since reaching the quarters in New York. He was injured last fall, and he lost two key matches, to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz, in United Cup to start 2023. He made the semis here last year, but he’s not returning with much momentum. Like Thiem against Rublev, Murray should also be the sentimental favorite in this late day-session match in Laver.

But Murray can’t rely on Berrettini to play poorly for three sets. He’ll have to be sharper and more proactive than he was in his only match so far this year, a straight-set loss to Sebastian Korda in Adelaide. After losing to Berrettini at Flushing Meadows, Murray maintained that he was the better player once the rallies began, but, unfortunately, he was by far the inferior server. That will need to change for him to have a chance on Tuesday. Winner: Berrettini