Three to See, Miami Open Day 11: Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz face off for first time

TALKING TENNIS WITH TRACY: What to expect when Alcaraz-Fritz meet

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sorana Cirstea

No. 2 vs. No. 74 doesn’t sound like much of a contest, especially when No. 2 has been playing like a No. 1 for the first three months of the season.

Does the 32-year-old Cirstea have a prayer of standing up to Sabalenka’s shot-making storm? No one else has come close so far in Miami. Even Barbora Krejcikova, who has a win over Sabalenka this year, mustered only five games against her on Monday night. This week Sabalenka seems to have upped her pace level even more. She’s creating offensive shots from just about anywhere on the court.

Cirstea has never faced Sabalenka, but she doesn’t seem like someone who can easily go toe-to-toe with her. The Romanian isn’t a power server or a muscular hitter. Despite her ranking, though, she’s on something of a hot streak right now. She won four matches in Indian Wells, including one over Caroline Garcia, before losing to Iga Swiatek in the quarters. And she’s won four more this week, including another over Garcia and one over Karolina Muchova

She’ll need to do much more to put a dent, or a doubt, in Sabalenka right now. Winner: Sabalenka

Jannik Sinner vs. Emil Ruusuvuori

Sinner-Ruusuvuori is becoming a tradition in Miami. They played here in 2021, and Sinner won 6-3, 6-2. They played here again in 2022, and Ruusuvuori made it much more of a match, before falling 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker.

Can the 23-year-old, 54th-ranked Finn take the next step and get his first win in five tries over the 21-year-old, 11th-ranked Italian? It will happen for him someday, but this doesn’t seem like the ideal moment. Sinner played an incredibly clean match—28 winners, eight unforced errors—in a 72-minute steamrolling of Andrey Rublev on Tuesday. At the same time, Ruusuvuori was pushed to the limit before squeaking past Botic Van de Zandschulp 7-5 in the third set. Put those two factors together with his 4-0 record in their head to head, and the odds skew solidly in Sinner’s favor. Winner: Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz

The match of the day will go on last, and it deserves that showcase spot. Alcaraz and Fritz have never played. They’re No. 1 and No. 10, respectively. They’re 20-5 (Fritz) and 16-1 (Alcaraz) in 2023. And they both looked sharp in their wins over Top 20 opponents on Tuesday: Fritz beat Holger Rune, 6-3, 6-4; Alcaraz beat Tommy Paul, 6-4, 6-4.

All of those factors would make you think this is going to be a great match. And it could be. Fritz will be playing on his favorite surface, in front of a U.S. crowd, and he hasn’t dropped a set in Miami yet. He’s going to want this one badly. Maybe too badly? Alcaraz specializes in sprinting away from his opponents to start, then slowing down just enough to give them a chance, before accelerating again to the finish line. Can Fritz keep him close with his serve, and find a way to get the ball past him often enough with his ground strokes? He has become a better touch player and defender over the years. He’ll need everything he’s got, and maybe a little that he doesn’t have, to catch Alcaraz on Wednesday. Winner: Alcaraz