Each day during the Australian Open, we'll select three of the most intriguing matches on the schedule and offer our predictions.
Jarmila Gajdosova vs. Maria Kirilenko [27] (Hisense Arena, first match)
They are separated by just 10 spots in the rankings, and in their lone prior meeting, Gajdosova edged Kirilenko, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (4), in a thriller on the red clay of Madrid last May.
The 39th-ranked Gajdosova possesses more power and can be more explosive on serve. The Bratislava-born, Melbourne resident will have the home crowd on her side and will be intent on earning her first Australian Open singles win after six straight opening-round exits.
If Gajdosova is hitting her spots on serve and gets off to an early lead, she will be tough to beat. Kirilenko managed just three games in a loss to 77th-ranked Sofia Arvidsson in Sydney qualifying last week. Still, I’m picking Kirilenko because I believe she will use her all-court game and variety to keep Gajdosova off balance, she’s more effective at changing pace, she can play inspired tennis in the majors (see her duel with Sam Stosur at the 2011 U.S. Open), and she’s had success in Melbourne in the past, upsetting Maria Sharapova and Dinara Safina en route to the 2010 quarterfinals.
The Pick: Kirilenko in 3.
Robin Haase vs. Andy Roddick [15] (Hisense Arena, fourth match)
If this pairing sounds like an Oz reunion, it is: They squared off in the third round last year, with Haase threatening to take a two-set lead. But Roddick ripped 15 of his 32 aces in the second set and exploited two Haase double faults in the breaker, rallying for a 2-6, 7-6 (2), 6-2, 6-2 win to reach the Melbourne fourth round for the eighth time in 10 career appearances.
The 53rd-ranked Dutchman displayed the type of problems his aggressive baseline game can pose when he took a two-set lead over Andy Murray in the opening round of the U.S. Open last August, before Murray roared back to win in five. If Haase tempers his power with patience and keeps his nerve in a rare appearance on a stadium court, this could be a tight test for Roddick against an opponent who is willing to take the first strike in rallies.
Ultimately, Roddick is a better big match player—he has never lost an Australian Open opening-round match—and while the talented Haase could very well extend this match, he was 0-9 against Top 20 opponents in 2011, is under .500 for his career, and I’m not convinced he can sustain the level of play necessary to pull off the upset (unless Roddick cooperates with a passive performance). For those reasons, I like Roddick to advance, though this could be a taxing test.
Juan Carlos Ferrero vs. Viktor Troicki [19] (Court 18, fourth match)
Ferrero turns 32 next month and could stage an early celebration in his first career meeting with Troicki. Facing a seeded player in the early rounds of a major is exactly the type of match that can bring out the best in the former world No. 1. Last summer, a fired-up Ferrero took down seventh-seeded Gael Monfils in five sets at the U.S. Open and looked confident doing it.
Though he lacks the firepower Troicki possesses on serve, the crafty 2004 semifinalist is an accurate shot maker adept at figuring out what shots opponents are uncomfortable hitting, and often forcing them to produce those shots under pressure.
Ferrero has a vast edge in experience, having played 471 more career matches. In contrast, Troicki has surpassed the third round just once in 16 prior Grand Slam tournament appearances. It’s tempting to pick the veteran Spaniard to pull off the upset here, particularly since it’s their first meeting. Ferrero is still willing to grind and is very skilled at breaking down opponents. But I’ll resist that urge and back Troicki based on his youth, edge in power, and his ability to hit finishing shots from more positions on court.
The Pick: Troicki in 4.