Each day during the Australian Open, we'll select three of the most intriguing matches on the schedule and offer our predictions.
John Isner [16] vs. David Nalbandian (Margaret Court Arena, third match)
Head-to-Head: Nalbandian leads 2-0
A potentially tantalizing match pitting one of the game’s most imposing servers against one of its most accurate returners. Groin and leg injuries limited the 30-year-old Argentine to 35 matches last season, but the former world No. 3 scored three Top 20 wins last year, including a 6-4, 7-6 sweep of Isner in Auckland, during which Nalbandian did not drop serve.
As an All-American at the University of Georgia, Isner earned the nickname “Grandpa” for his methodical manner of doing most things so slowly—except serving. He’s not quite ready for the AARP, but if Isner is landing his lethal serve, he is primed to post his first win over the 2006 semifinalist in three meetings.
A superb ball striker who can take the ball early and play the angles proficiently, Nalbandian cannot be discounted if he’s healthy. Isner is a more polished player than he was a year ago, having reached his first major quarterfinal at the U.S. Open. This could come down to tiebreakers, but I see the 6’9” Grandpa getting through.
The Pick: Isner in 4.
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Stanislas Wawrinka [21] (Margaret Court Arena, night match)
Head-to-Head: Wawrinka leads 1-0
If you’re a fan of shot makers, this is a must-see match between two former Top 10 players with a flair for finding the lines. Though they were born just three months apart, they’ve only squared off once, four years ago, with Wawrinka winning 6-3, 6-7, 6-0.
The Swiss with the brilliant one-handed backhand is defending quarterfinal points, so he should be highly motivated for this match against the dangerous 2006 finalist. Wawrinka has been the more consistent player over the past year, is typically physically fitter (though Baghdatis looks to be in good shape now) and can be tough to break when he’s serving with confidence. This could go the distance.
On paper, I give Wawrinka a slight edge, but I’ll back the Bag Man, who has already played eight matches this season. Baghdatis plays a bit closer to the baseline, is slightly quicker around the court, can hit the ball earlier, and if he’s finding the short angle with his forehand, I think he can move Wawrinka, who prefers playing a bit further back. Baghdatis has played some of his most memorable matches at night, and he can stir the Cypriot faithful into a frenzy with the passion makes him so popular in Melbourne.
Mona Barthel vs. Petra Cetkovska [32] (Court 8, fourth match)
Head-to-Head: No prior meetings
Neither player is a household name, but with the top women's seeds facing manageable matches on Day 3, this second-rounder looms as a potential upset.
The 21-year-old Barthel blasted her way to her first WTA title in Hobart by winning eight straight matches (three in qualifying), including a 6-1, 6-2 thrashing of top-seeded Yanina Wickmayer in the final. This is Barthel’s first Australian Open, and the cumulative effect of playing so many matches in a short period, combined with the heat and pressure, could take a toll on her.
Fatigue may be a factor, but the 44th-ranked Barthel is a power player who can end points quickly. Cetkovska surrendered serve seven times in a three-set win over Ayumi Morita, and I believe Barthel’s aggressive return game will be a key to her winning this match and continuing her rise up the rankings.
The Pick: Barthel in 3.