Each day during the Australian Open, we'll select three of the most intriguing matches on the schedule and offer our predictions.
Janko Tipsarevic [9] vs. Richard Gasquet [17] (Margaret Court Arena, third match)
Head-to-Head: Gasquet leads 1-0
Tipsarevic revealed he rarely watches television, but he will be a small-screen star today as this match between flashy stylists makes for must-see TV. Coming off his first major quarterfinal at the 2011 U.S. Open, Tipsarevic wants to solidify his status as a Top 10 player. The gifted Gasquet can take a significant step toward a Top 10 return with a good result in Melbourne. But he hasn’t beaten a Top 10 opponent in a major since sweeping sixth-ranked Nikolay Davydenko at the 2010 U.S. Open.
The tattooed Tipsarevic has produced positive ink on the stat sheet, hitting 39 aces and winning 81 percent of his first-serve points through two rounds. The aggressive Belgrade baseliner uses his legs as launching pads to power himself up on serve and possesses one of the most potent first serves of any sub-6-footer on the ATP. Gasquet typically stands several feet behind the baseline because he likes a little bit of extra time for a look at the return, but may need to move a bit closer to the baseline on Tipsarevic’s second serve.
Two key questions to this match are: Who will win the battle of court positioning, and which man will be most effective imposing his preferred pattern? The owner of a brilliant one-handed backhand, Gasquet is at his best dictating cross-court rallies from behind the baseline off the backhand side—he can drive opponents backward with heavy topspin, lure them forward with the short slice, or bang the flatter backhand down the line—whereas Tipsarevic plays some of his best tennis prowling the baseline to pound his forehand into the corners. Gasquet has an all-court game—he’s won titles on every surface—but under-utilizes his volley and sometimes seems more interested in making a show-stopping shot than stringing long, physical points together.
Fresh off the Chennai final where he did not drop serve in a 7-6, 6-7, 6-7 loss to Milos Raonic, Tipsarevic is the higher-ranked player, has reached three finals in his last six events, and is typically a tougher competitor than the sometime fragile Frenchman. It’s tempting to pick the in-form favorite, but I'll gamble on Gasquet (how can you pick against a guy who can play while balancing a ball on his head?) believing he can use his variety to keep Tipsy off balance and prevail in a tight test.
The Pick: Gasquet in 5.
Petra Kvitova [2] vs. Maria Kirilenko [27] (Rod Laver Arena, first match)
Head-to-Head: Kirilenko leads 2-1
The Wimbledon winner showed that short-term memory loss is one of her many assets as she shrugged off 48 unforced errors and an 0-2 third-set hole in a 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 second-round comeback conquest of Carla Suarez Navarro. Kvitova clearly wasn’t sharp, but didn’t panic, and regained her range when it mattered most. “It's my game that I'm playing winners. The mistakes [are also] part of my game,” she said.
In their most recent meeting, Kvitova crushed Kirilenko, 6-2, 6-2, in the Fed Cup final last November, and on the surface simply has too much game for the slender Moscow native. But before you completely dismiss Kirilenko, consider that she’s won two of three meetings with Kvitova and she’s surprised Top 10 opponents in majors before, beating reigning Roland Garros champ Svetlana Kuznetsova at the 2010 French Open, months after she stopped Maria Sharapova and Dinara Safina en route to the Australian Open quarters. The Moscow match was indoors; the Melbourne court should play more slowly. If this develops into a straight-forward baseline battle, Kvitova will overpower Kirilenko. If Kirilenko can change speeds, attack at times, and play with the court craft and passion she showed in a rousing three-set loss to eventual-champ Samantha Stosur at the U.S. Open last summer, she can challenge.
The owner of 10 doubles titles, Kirilenko is a threat because she brings the front court into play—she’s a fine volleyer not averse to drawing opponents forward—is extremely fit, and can shift strategic gears. Stylistically, this should be an interesting match because both play from all areas of the court, but in order for Kirilenko to earn the upset, she’ll need the more explosive Kvitova to cooperate and litter the court with errors. In 2011, Kvitova was 60-13 suffering just four losses to players ranked outside the Top 25. I see Kvitova continuing her climb toward the top spot and advancing.
The Pick: Kvitova in 2
[14] Sabine Lisicki vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova [18] (Hisense Arena, third match)
Head-to-Head: Lisicki leads 1-0
The 2011 WTA comeback player of the year has opened 2012 with another revival. A left abdominal injury knocked Lisicki out of Auckland, forced her to retire from Sydney, and looked like it would severely slow her in the second round against the tough Shahar Peer. But Lisicki persevered through pain to put a 6-1, 6-2 hurting on her opponent. The 22-year-old German with the booming serve and ever-present gold horseshoe around her neck was ranked No. 156 when she failed to qualify for the main draw last January, but created a career resurrection by winning Birmingham and storming to the Wimbledon semifinals and returns a year later aiming for the Top 10 and her third consecutive major fourth-round appearance.
You can view this match as a young player on the rise vs. an aging Grand Slam champion on the decline, but I believe the 26-year-old Kuznetsova can be a major contender again if she’s fully committed to the cause.
Admittedly, I’ve guzzled the Kuznetsova Kool-Aid before: Her skills can be so intoxicating when she’s on her game she reminds me a bit of Marat Safin, in that both won U.S. Open titles at very young ages and spent the rest of their careers struggling to channel their gifts and fulfill their potential. The two-time Grand Slam champion has more depth to her game and the ability to shift styles, but Lisicki generally gets more from her game, is usually more clear-headed on court, and has been the better competitor recently. If Kuznetsova can compete with clarity, swing freely, refrain from the mental beatdowns she sometimes administers to herself, and play with positive emotion, I think she can score an upset here.
The Pick: Kuznetsova in 3.