Each day during the Australian Open, we'll select three of the most intriguing matches on the schedule and offer our predictions.
Maria Sharapova [4] vs. Sabine Lisicki [14] (Rod Laver Arena, first night match)
Head-to-Head: Sharapova leads 2-0
A rematch of last year's Wimbledon semifinals pits two power players whose contrasting strengths can create a perfect storm of combustible exchanges. Lisicki owns one of the biggest serves of any woman not named Williams—her 116 mph blast is the second-fastest serve of the tournament—while Sharapova is one of the game’s most dangerous returners: She’s averaging six service breaks per match and has surrendered just five games in three matches, the least of any woman.
Lisicki, the 2011 WTA comeback player of the year, showed resolve and a rousing forehand in roaring back from a one-set deficit to beat two-time Grand Slam champion Svetlana Kuznetsova to reach her third consecutive Grand Slam fourth round. Injuries have haunted Lisicki in recent majors—she was wheeled off the court at the 2010 U.S. Open in a wheelchair and carried off the court on a stretcher at Roland Garros last spring—but the left abdominal strain that forced her to retire from Auckland and withdraw from Sydney didn't seem to slow her in the third round, as she stepped into the court and bullied Kuznetsova behind the baseline.
Hitting through Sharapova is an entirely different task, as the 6-foot-2 Russian with the wide wingspan is at her best straddling the baseline, hitting screaming shots on the line. Feeding Sharapova pace is like loading Popeye up with spinach—it only makes her stronger. Unless she has an exceptional serving day, I don’t think Lisicki can beat Sharapova in a conventional cross-court baseline battle. She’s got to use her volley and play the shorter angles, though the danger of that play is exposing yourself to Sharapova’s down-the-line daggers. Lisicki was ranked No. 156 when she failed to qualify for the main draw last January, and her rapid rise to the edge of the Top 10 is a testament to her ability, but she’s 0-4 vs. Top 5 players since 2010. Sharapova has served over 70 percent in her last two matches and is crushing shots with conviction. I favor the 2008 champion to advance to a possible blockbuster quarterfinal vs. Serena Williams.
The Pick: Sharapova in 3.
David Ferrer [5] vs. Richard Gasquet [17] (Hisense Arena, third match)
Head-to-Head: Ferrer leads 5-1
Grit grapples with grace when David Ferrer faces Richard Gasquet, whose brilliant one-handed backhand is one of the game’s great shots. When Gasquet is in full flight playing with confidence, he can deliver dazzle, but the feisty Ferrer is competing with grinding defiance and playing for his third Australian Open quarterfinal in the last five years.
Gasquet was once the world's top-ranked junior, but much of his professional Grand Slam history against Top 10 opponents has been a story of futility—he plays well enough to compete against virtually anyone on any surface, but often balks at creating closure. Contesting his 30th career Grand Slam tournament, Gasquet has reached only one major quarterfinal, at the 2007 Wimbledon, when he roared back from a two-set deficit to defeat then-world No. 3 Andy Roddick before bowing to Roger Federer in the semifinals.
The 17th-seeded Gasquet owns the all-court skills to challenge Ferrer, but will need a massive measure of Gallic defiance and forward thinking to prevail. Gasquet has bigger backswings off both wings, which is why he’s more comfortable standing several feet behind the baseline. He used his cross-court backhand to confound ninth-seeded Janko Tipsarevic in the third round, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1, and has surrendered just one set in three matches.
As much as I’d like to pick the artist in the upset, his backhand may be muted by Ferrer’s skill at running around his backhand and unleashing his best weapon, the inside-out forehand, to open the angles. Ryan Sweeting pushed Ferrer to five sets by red-lining his game, varying spins and attacking net when possible. Gasquet must come out of his comfort zone, move forward into the court on occasion, and hit his backhand up the line to truly test Ferrer. Ultimately, I don’t believe Gasquet’s flair will be enough to overcome Ferrer’s force of will—particularly if it’s a grueling match played in hot conditions. Ferrer has won five of six meetings with Gasquet, losing only two sets in those six meetings, and I’m picking the 2011 semifinalist to prevail.
The Pick: Ferrer in 4.
Petra Kvitova [2] vs. Ana Ivanovic [21] (Rod Laver Arena, first match)
Head-to-Head: Ivanovic leads 3-0
The former world No. 1 faces the possible future No. 1 in what could be a baseline shoot-out. Both Kvitova and Ivanovic play their most dynamic tennis when dictating from the first strike, but this match may offer more than grip-it-and-rip-it tennis.
Firing her favored forehand with ambition and using her slice backhand to get to net, Ivanovic has not lost a set in three matches. Four years ago, Ivanovic reached successive major finals in Melbourne and Paris, rose to the No. 1 ranking and appeared entrenched in the Top 10, only to suffer a shocking second-round exit to 188th-ranked Julie Coin at the 2008 U.S. Open. She endured struggles with a confidence crisis and a sporadic service toss she sometimes chased like a runaway balloon, but Ivanovic is playing her best tennis in years right now and carries a 3-0 lifetime record against Kvitova into this match. A sign of Ivanovic’s growing confidence is serving revival: She’s won a tournament-best 81 percent of points played on her first serve.
I picked Ivanovic as my dark horse before the tournament. I believe in her game and think if she can jam the 6’ Kvitova with the serve into the body and drive the ball down the line, particularly off the forehand side, she has a shot to surprise. Speed is not a strength of either woman, which is why the first strike will be so important. Since fighting back from an 0-2 third-set deficit to defeat Carla Suarez Navarro in round two, Kvitova has not lost a game and looks much more relaxed on court. Though she has never beaten Ivanovic, the left-handed Czech is a much more confident and polished player now than she was the last time they faced off, three years ago in Brisbane. A win would launch Ivanovic back into the Top 20, but she hasn’t beaten a Top 2-ranked player in nearly five years. Ivanovic is explosive and experienced, but Kvitova is the most complete player in the field, hits a harder, heavier ball than Ivanovic's prior opponents, and I believe she will prevail.
The Pick: Kvitova in 2.