Each day during the French Open, we'll preview—and predict the winner of—three of the most compelling men's matches.
(5) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fabio Fognini
—Head to Head: Tsonga leads 1-0
The fifth-ranked Tsonga resides 40 spots higher in the rankings, won their lone prior meeting, will have French fans firmly behind him, and brings bigger weapons to this battle of engaging players who can exhibit operatic emotions. And consider that Fognini faces a physical and emotional hangover after completing a gripping 6-3, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 8-6 comeback win over Viktor Troicki—you’d have to be nuts, or in desperate need of an upset, to pick the theatrical Italian, right?
If Fognini recovers and can sustain concentration—not always a strength for a flaky player who can alternately feign and actually exhibit apathy—the 2011 quarterfinalist can make the magic happen again. The match is on Tsonga’s racquet and he’s the better fighter, so this pick is a reach, but if you want a live a little, you’ve got to roll with the underdog sometimes. And Fognini can be a competitive roller coaster ride. He's an accurate ball striker, well-balanced on both sides, hits bigger than his 5’10” frame suggests, and upset French favorite Gael Monfils in the 2010 tournament. Getting to Tsonga’s backhand and playing with the passion he shown in Roland Garros before is essential.
The Pick: Fognini in five sets.
(11) Gilles Simon vs. (18) Stanislas Wawrinka
—Head-to-Head: Tied 1-1
The Frenchman hits flatter, won his third straight Bucharest title on clay last month, and is skilled unleashing the tennis equivalent of a sucker punch: He’ll push a few shots to lull someone into a false sense of security, like a fighter dropping his hands, then crack the counter-strike down the line. Simon has shown both cranky and combative sides—he was raging at himself when a point away from a two-set hole against Ryan Harrison; he then turned up the intensity in rolling through the fifth set versus a weary Brian Baker. Simon will have to be solid from the first ball against a man with an explosive one-handed backhand. Wawrinka is stronger, hits a heavier ball that bites with more spin, and should be able to wear down the slender Simon to reach the fourth round for the third straight year.
The Pick: Wawrinka in four sets.
(9) Juan Martin del Potro vs. (21) Marin Cilic
—Head to Head: Del Potro leads 6-2
They were born five days apart, and a couple of years ago, 2009 U.S. Open champion del Potro and 2010 Australian Open semifinalist Cilic seemed to be growing a compelling rivalry offering the prospect of major meetings. Del Potro has not dropped a set in winning their last three encounters, including a straight-sets win in the Davis Cup quarterfinals on clay in Buenos Aires. But the Argentine has played the first two rounds with his left knee taped, and after a trying four-set win over Edouard Roger-Vasselin, he said of the knee: “This is something that bothers me. It’s a constant bother.”
These are two big men who player power baseline tennis, and each will try to take the first strike. Given del Potro’s knee issue, you have to favor Cilic, who is playing with the enthusiasm of a man eager to make amends for his 2011 first-round exit. Del Potro swept Cilic in Madrid earlier this month, and the knee injury may actually make him even more aggressive, knowing his ability to play longer rallies could be compromised.
It's a tough call: Cilic should have the edge in a long match, and may try to play with more margin to test del Potro physically, but if del Potro can move, I still give him a shot. He’s a bit more explosive, and his reaction after the second-round win was not one of a man tossing in the towel, but of one willing to fight on.
The Pick: del Potro in five sets.