Each day during the French Open, we'll preview—and predict the winner of—three of the most compelling women's matches.
(9) Caroline Wozniacki vs. (23) Kaia Kanepi
—Head to Head: Wozniacki leads 3-1
You can make a very good case for Kanepi winning this match. The Estonian possesses more power and beat Wozniacki when she was world No. 1 last fall. Though Wozniacki has won three of their four matches overall, three of them have gone the distance. Kanepi, a French Open quarterfinalist in 2008, has won 10 of her last 12 clay-court matches, including the Estoril final, and has two titles to her credit this season. The slumping Wozniacki has not won a title since New Haven last August.
This is a case where heavy conditions could help Kanepi because she's the harder hitter whose shots are typically more penetrating. Clinging to her Top 10 spot, it’s understandable why Wozniacki may well feel more pressure here, and if that translates into tentative serving or leaving her top-spin forehand short, she'll be in big trouble. Kanepi will take her cracks and go for her shots, and if she’s landing them can cause the upset. Wozniacki must make a high percentage of first serves, maintain the depth on her ground strokes, and play her familiar stubborn defense. If she does, her consistency and court coverage should carry her through.
The Pick: Wozniacki in three sets.
(7) Li Na vs. Christina McHale
—Head-to-Head: Never played
It’s tough to imagine Li overlooking McHale, given the fact the pride of the Garden State upset French Open semifinalist Marion Bartoli at the 2011 U.S. Open. And you know McHale takes no lead for granted since blowing a 5-0 third-set cushion to Sara Errani at the French Open last year.
Both women like pace and can work the angles on the run. Li’s two-handed backhand is her kill shot, and if she’s cracking her forehand with confidence she’ll be very tough beat. The reigning champion has more sting on her shots and brings more physicality to court. The spunky McHale has already beaten one reigning Grand Slam champion this season (Petra Kvitova at Indian Wells) and can pose problems if she’s on her game. But Li, who has been flying under the radar a bit as returning champion, has too much game to falter here—unless she tightens up and McHale plays a near-flawless match, an unlikely scenario.
The Pick: Li in two sets.
(2) Maria Sharapova vs. (28) Peng Shuai
—Head to Head: Sharapova leads 3-1
Sharapova has been dominant so far, dropping just two games in two wins; it sometimes seems she’s hitting downhill. Peng is at home on hard courts, but she’s reached the third round here for the second straight year, and will bring her flat two-handed strokes and intensity to each point. The problem she faces is that Sharapova is so locked in from the baseline; Peng will need to either get the Russsian on the run or consistently work the ball out of her expansive strike zone to test her.
Variety is not Peng’s forte: She’s at her best driving line drives into the corners, and it’s tough to imagine Peng hitting through Sharapova. Because she plays with two hands off both sides and is about five inches shorter, Peng doesn’t have the access to angles Sharapova can produce; the world No. 2 just swept another two-hander, the lighter-hitting Ayumi Morita, today. Sharapova has ruthlessly cracked 40 winners compared to just one for her opponents in this tournament, and she’s riding a seven-match win streak as she aims to complete the career Grand Slam.
The Pick: Sharapova in two sets.