Each day during the French Open, we'll preview—and predict the winner of—three of the most compelling men's matches.
(9) Juan Martin del Potro vs. (7) Tomas Berdych
—Head to Head: Del Potro leads 3-2
This battle of big men returns to red clay after Berdych beat del Potro in two tiebreakers last month on the blue clay of Madrid. Berdych deserves to be the favorite here. The 2010 Wimbledon finalist has gone deep in each Masters clay-court event, losing to Novak Djokovic in the Monte Carlo semifinals, to Roger Federer in a quality Madrid final, and to Rafael Nadal in the Rome quarterfinals.
Berdych rallied for a five-set win over big-serving Kevin Anderson in a match that could serve as solid preparation. Del Potro has been playing with his left knee taped, but that did not deter him from scoring a straight-sets win over 21st-seeded Marin Cilic in his best performance of the tournament.
Both men are explosive, flat hitters who are at their best taking the first strike to control rallies, so tiebreakers could come into play here. Berdych has been hitting the ball very cleanly during the clay season, but I believe del Potro is a little bit better athletically, and his forehand tends to be a bit more reliable.
The Pick: Del Potro in five sets.
(5) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (18) Stanislas Wawrinka
—Head-to-Head: Tied 1-1
Tsonga made a mockery of our Fabio Fognini upset pick in the third round so we'd have to be either pretty crazy or a glutton for punishment to pick against him again, right?
Don’t answer that yet. Remember that Wawrinka stormed back from a two-set deficit to beat Tsonga in a dramatic five-set French Open win last year. Both men have the ability to play all-court tennis, but because Tsonga plays closer to the baseline, he tends to transition more than the Olympic doubles gold medalist. Tsonga will try to dictate with his serve and whip his inside-out forehand to drag Wawrinka off the court. The prospect of two Frenchman reaching the last eight (Richard Gasquet can advance to his first quarterfinal if he beats Andy Murray) is sure to fuel the fans, who adore the charismatic Tsonga and should supply vocal support.
Wawrinka edged another Frenchman, 11th-seeded Gilles Simon, in five sets in the third round, and given his experience playing Tsonga in Paris last year, he should know what he's in for. Look for Wawrinka to use his brilliant one-handed backhand to try to exploit Tsonga’s weaker backhand wing, and occasionally strike his backhand down the line, as Tsonga prefers to hit his forehand from the backhand corner. It’s a tough call, but we’ll go with Wawrinka to reach his first French Open quarterfinal.
The Pick: Wawrinka in five sets.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (22) Andreas Seppi
—Head to Head: Djokovic leads 7-0
Credit Seppi for playing a composed match to topple 14th-seeded Fernando Verdasco in a five-set, third-round win. But the degree of difficulty spikes as Seppi takes on a world No. 1 playing for a place in history. Djokovic is bidding to become the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to hold all four major titles simultaneously, and has enjoyed a clear comfort zone against the Italian in the past: Djokovic has won 14 of the 16 sets they’ve played.
Seppi has not been able to generate enough offense to truly trouble the Belgrade baseliner. Though he stands 6’3”, Seppi has a sound but unimposing serve, and Djokovic has pressed his advantage in running rallies in their past meetings. Seppi is a smart, consistent player and generally a good competitor, but he’ll need Djokovic to either commit errors, lose the range on his serve, or leave shots short in the court to pose a significant threat here.
The top-seeded Djokovic has lifted his level with each passing round and doesn’t figure to falter here.
The Pick: Djokovic in four sets.