Three to See: Elina Svitolina vs. Daria Kasatkina, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti, Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sloane Stephens

Svitolina and Kasatkina have both made the Top 10, and reached Grand Slam semifinals. But you wouldn’t know they’re at roughly the same level by looking at their head to head. Svitolina leads 6-0, and she’s dropped just two sets in those six matches. Kasatkina’s loopy strokes and good defense apparently don’t do the trick against Svitolina’s stronger, flatter baseline attack.

But there are reasons to think Kasatkina could break the ice on Sunday. She’s ranked No. 9, to 192 for Svitolina, who is still in comeback mode after having a child and taking much of 2022 off. Kasatkina also hasn’t dropped a set in her first three rounds, while Svitolina had to go three to get past Anna Blinkova and Storm Hunter, neither of whom is ranked in the Top 50. And one of the two sets that Kasatkina has won from Svitolina came on clay.

We’ve already seen the Russian invasion of Ukraine have an effect on the women’s event in Paris, and the subtext of this match—Russian versus Ukrainian—can’t be ignored. We’ll have to wait and see if, or how, that plays out with each player, and the dynamic between them. Winner: Kasatkina

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Svitolina leads their head to head 6-0, but there are reasons to think Kasatkina could break the ice on Sunday.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti

The 21-year-old Italian and the 20-year-old Spaniard have played just once at the ATP level. You may be surprised to learn, or be reminded, that it was the Italian who won, in three close sets, on clay, in last year’s final in Hamburg.

What does that mean for this match, which will take place in a much more charged atmosphere, third up in Chatrier on Sunday? Alcaraz hasn’t been seriously challenged so far, dropping one set in three matches and making quick work of Denis Shapovalov on Friday night. But Musetti has actually been even cleaner so far. He hasn’t surrendered a set, and he dropped just seven games to a higher seed, Cam Norrie, in the third round.

Two years ago, Musetti had a two-set lead on Novak Djokovic on this court, but was blown away from there. Is he ready to take the next step, and win a third set from a top player? Alcaraz will likely give him his chances, but I’m not ready to bet against him. Hopefully, whoever wins, these two will treat us to a full display of their varied shot-making talents; it could be an awesome show. Winner: Alcaraz

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Sabalenka is the player of the moment, but Stephens is the player who has gone farther in Paris.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sloane Stephens

Sabalenka and Stephens will take the court for a rare women’s night-session contest in Chatrier. If their three past matches are any indication, it could be a good one. It could also end with a Sabalenka win: She’s 3-0 against Stephens, but all three have gone the distance.

Sabalenka is the player of the moment; she’s 32-5 this season, compared to Stephens’ 17-11. But Sloane is the player who has gone farther in Paris; she was four games from the title in 2018.

The slower night conditions may help the defensive-minded Stephens absorb more pace, and so far this year she has seemed ready for a fight. But Sabalenka has the power to keep Stephens from even getting in the ring. Winner: Sabalenka

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