Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner didn’t have an Indian Wells title, or a big win in 2026. Now they have both

Norrie and Tiafoe have played just once, on hard courts in Delray two years ago, and Norrie emerged the victor, 6-4 in the third. Since then, both have climbed the rankings, to No. 12 (Norrie) and No. 16 (Tiafoe), respectively.

Tiafoe is the flashier player and will have the audience behind him. He has begun to master the art of engaging a crowd without disengaging from the match. Norrie is the steadier and grittier player. He’s mastered the art of doggedly staying with more obviously talented opponents, and never caving to them mentally. The dynamic here, between shot-making crowd favorite and the lonely, unflappable opposition, should be fascinating. Winner: Norrie

The crowds will certainly on their sides Wednesday at Indian Wells. Will fortune favor Tiafoe and Gauff as well?

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff

The head-to-head between Sabalenka and Gauff will may come as a surprise to many. Despite her winless futility against the world No. 1, Iga Swiatek, Gauff has a 3-1 record against the world No. 2. She’s won their last two meetings, and the lone victory by Sabalenka came in a third-set tiebreaker, back in 2020. In the past, Gauff has been speedy enough to track down Sabalenka’s baseline bombs, and steady enough to eventually elicit a miss.

To be fair, two of Gauff’s wins were also by the skin of her teeth, which means the most important thing we can say about these two is that their matches are close. Both women are also coming off razor-thin victories, 6-4 in the third, on Tuesday, though Sabalenka did beat a tougher opponent in Barbora Krejcikova. In general, Sabalenka is a better, more consistent, more confident player than the one who has faced Gauff in the past. Winner: Sabalenka

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Daniil Medvedev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

What can Medvedev have left after his circus of a fourth-round win over Alexander Zverev on Tuesday? He played for three hours and 17 minutes, and rolled his ankle along the way. Davidovich Fokina, by contrast, is coming off a fairly straightforward two-set win over Cristian Garin.

Medvedev is 2-0 against Davidovich Fokina. The question on Wednesday may be how he approaches this match mentally. He may be tired and hurt, but on the plus side, that may make him feel as if he has a little less to lose, and allow him to hit a little more freely. If so, his win streak should continue. Winner: Medvedev

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