Three to See, Miami Day 6: 164th-ranked Sofia Kenin is making progress; can she make more against Bianca Andreescu?

Interview in Miami: Taylor Fritz

Bianca Andreescu vs Sofia Kenin

Kenin is 24 and Andreescu 22, but this stadium opener on Sunday already qualifies as a throwback. Andreescu won a major and reached a career-high No. 4 in 2019; Kenin won a major and reached a career high, also of No. 4, in 2020. Now Andreescu is ranked 31st and Kenin 164th, but both have shown a sign of two this season that they’re in the process of turning a corner and moving back toward relevance. Andreescu is coming off a Top 10 win, over Maria Sakkari, while Kenin took Elena Rybakina to two tiebreakers in Indian Wells, and she has two wins in Miami. That’s progress for both.

Andreescu would seem to be the logical pick to go one step farther on Sunday. She’s 3-1 against Kenin, though their last meeting came in 2019. More important, when she’s close to her best, Andreescu is the more formidable figure on the court, with more power and variety from the ground. Kenin has to hope Andreescu has a letdown after her win over Sakkari. But Bianca looks like she’s heading in the other direction—up—right now. Winner: Andreescu

Taylor Fritz vs. Denis Shapovalov

It isn’t too often that you see a matchup where the player ranked 20 spots lower has the upper hand in the head to head. But that’s the case with Fritz-Shapovalov. The Canadian is 5-3 against the American, and he recorded a win as recently as last fall in Vienna. But Fritz is 10th in the rankings, and made his first ATP Finals appearance last year, while Shapovalov is 30th, and has spent the better part of 12 months searching for his best form, and not quite finding it.

The two played last month in Acapulco, and Fritz emerged with a straight-set win. He’s the more solid and confident player in general, and, despite that head to head, he must feel as if he’s left Shapo in the rearview mirror. Would that be wishful thinking? Unfortunately for Fritz, Shapovalov at his best still has a high ceiling, and he may still feel that he should have the upper hand when they face off. Winner: Shapovalov

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Madison Keys

As with Fritz-Shapovalov, it’s the lower-ranked player here, Keys, who has the edge in the head-to-head. Not a big edge: She beat Krejcikova 6-3, 6-2 in their only previous meeting, on her way to the Australian Open semifinals last year. At that time, Keys was the player on the roll; this time it’s Krejcikova who is more in form. She’s coming off a title run in Dubai last month, that included wins over the WTA’s No. 1, 2 and 3 Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Jessie Pegula. While she lost to Sabalenka in Indian Wells last week, it wasn’t by much. Keys, meanwhile, has looked a little better from one week to the next this season.

Assuming they’re both playing decently in their late-day meeting on Tuesday, this should be a highlight of the Grandstand schedule. Krejcikova does a lot of things well, but she usually doesn’t blow her opponents off the court. Keys is the opposite: She doesn’t have a lot of different ways to win, but if she’s clicking, she can beat anyone, man or woman, for pace. The contrast should be intriguing. Winner: Krejcikova