Three to See: Sabalenka vs. Svitolina, followed by Djokovic and Alcaraz—two wins away from a clash

Talking Tennis with Tracy: It's time to embrace technology on clay

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina

“I’m just here for the handshake,” is what tennis fans say when a match is more compelling for its personal drama than its competitiveness. In this quarterfinal encounter between a Ukrainian and a Belarusian, there will be plenty of drama, but it’s unlikely that there will be a handshake to wait for.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been an inescapable part of the women’s draw at Roland Garros this year, and it will be again on Tuesday. Aside from the politics, how dramatic or competitive will the tennis be? Sabalenka and Svitolina have split their previous two matches, with Svitolina winning on clay in Strasbourg in 2020, 6-4 in the third set. Both women are in very different places now than they were three years ago. Sabalenka has been the WTA’s player of the year so far, while Svitolina is on a nine-match win streak, and seems to be getting better by the round.

Svitolina will likely play some more inspired tennis in this one, but Sabalenka has the edge in every way that matters—serve, forehand, backhand and match readiness. The questions Sabalenka has faced about the war have unsettled her outside the court, but so far, she’s kept her cool on it. Winner: Sabalenka

Novak Djokovic vs. Karen Khachanov

How real is the concept of the “trap game?” How often do teams or athletes look ahead to the big match and lose to the lesser opponent in front of them? Even if the phenomenon is real, the Big 3 haven’t succumbed to it very often. Djokovic’s consistency in reaching the later rounds at majors shows that he doesn’t get ahead of himself.

He could be forgiven for making an exception on Tuesday. Yes, he’ll be facing the 11th-ranked Khachanov in a Grand Slam quarterfinal, but he’ll also know he may soon be facing the top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz in a Grand Slam semifinal, with the title essentially on the line.

On paper, Djokovic wouldn’t seem to have much to fear from Khachanov. He’s 8-1 against the Russian, 2-0 on clay, and has won their last seven meetings while dropping just one set. When they played at Roland Garros in 2020, Djokovic won by the highly predictable scores of 6-4, 6-3, 6-3. Since then, though, Khachanov has been building a reputation for himself as a guy who stays calm when the lights shine brightest. He made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2021; beat Nick Kyrgios in five sets to make the semifinals at last year’s US Open; and followed that up with another semifinal run at the Australian Open five months ago.

Based on those results, the 27-year-old Khachanov would seem to be due for a big win. But this big? He hasn’t been consistent enough to match Djokovic from the baseline in the past, so he’ll probably need to redline with his serve and forehand for the better part of three sets. I’m going to say he can’t quite do it. Winner: Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Speaking of trap matches, Alcaraz succumbed to one at this stage of Roland Garros 12 months ago: With a semifinal against either Djokovic or Rafael Nadal looming, the Spaniard went out in four surprising sets to Alexander Zverev instead.

The upside for Alcaraz on Tuesday is that Tsitsipas is too good on clay, and at Roland Garros, to be overlooked. He’s the fifth seed and the 2021 finalist, and his status as a title contender should keep Alcaraz from looking ahead. Even better for Alcaraz, he’s 4-0 against the Greek, and he won their most recent meeting, in the Barcelona final last month, 6-3, 6-4.

Tsitsipas is a tremendous athlete, but Alcaraz is a nonpareil one. He hits harder, runs faster, has a wider variety of offensive shots, and doesn’t have an exploitable weakness like Tsitsipas’s one-handed backhand. What, if anything, can Tsitsipas do to neutralize all of that? Come to net? Shorten points? Disrupt with slices and angles? All of the above? Chances are, it still won’t be enough. Winner: Alcaraz