Each day through the first four rounds, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and give his predictions.
(21) Milos Raonic vs. Sam Querrey
—Head to Head: Never played
Querrey, once as high as No. 17, has been flying under the radar in efforts to revive his ranking and expand his game after undergoing elbow surgery last June. Working with Brad Gilbert, the American has tried to dictate play more with his first serve and forehand—and be more ambitious on second serve. He's has had success on grass in the past: The 2010 Queen’s Club champ made the Queen’s semis earlier this month and reached the round of 16 in his last SW19 appearance.
Because both men are atomic servers who can end the point with one swing—Raonic hit 20 aces and Querrey delivered 19 in their first-round wins—tiebreaks could come into play. The Canadian boasts a 17-8 tiebreak record this season, while Querrey is 5-7. Raonic is more comfortable closing at net, pushed six-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer to a third-set breaker in Halle, and has the potential to someday reach the final.
The Pick: Raonic in four sets
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Grigor Dimitrov
—Head to Head: Dimitrov leads 1-0
A battle of former junior Grand Slam champions and occasionally superb shotmakers. Six years ago, Baghdatis reached the Australian Open final and Wimbledon semifinals, and looked like a man with a perennial Top 10 future. But he’s surpassed the fourth round of a major just once since then, a run to the ’07 Wimbledon quarters. At his best, the Bag Man hugs the baseline, takes the ball earlier, and can work the angles wonderfully. Look for Baghdatis to target Dimitrov’s one-handed backhand in an effort to force some short balls.
Dimitrov has a longer swing on the backhand side, but also owns a bit more versatility. The 21-year-old Bulgarian has the all-court game that plays well on grass—he’s 5-1 on turf in 2012—and if he can sustain control and avoid lapses into over-ambitious shotmaking, he can reach the third round of a Slam for the first time.
The Pick: Dimitrov in five sets
Jarkko Nieminen vs. Brian Baker
—Head to Head: First Meeting
Nieminen showed there’s still plenty of life left in his 30-year-old legs as he withstood 28 aces from Feliciano Lopez to upend the 14th seed in an all-lefty first-round win. A 2006 Wimbledon quarterfinalist, Nieminen can be a tricky opponent because he does not over-play, can effectively change speeds on his shots, and is solid from all areas.
The 27-year-old Baker was one of the feel-good stories of the clay season, returning to the pro circuit after multiple surgeries, playing through qualifying to reach his first ATP final in Nice, winning a wild card into Roland Garros, and rising 90 spots in the rankings. Baker is a control-orientated player adept at selecting the right shot at the right time, but he also hits a heavier ball than Nieminen. Although Jarkko has an immense edge in experience—he's playing his 39th major, compared to Baker's five—we’ll ride with the 126th-ranked Nashville native to continue a compelling comeback.
The Pick: Baker in five sets