Each day during the U.S. Open, Richard Pagliaro will preview three must-see matches—and offer his predictions. (For the men's Day 1 Three to See, click here.)
**Louis Armstrong Stadium: Lucie Safarova (15) vs. Melanie Oudin
<em>Head-to-head: Safarova leads 2-0</em>**
Set aside the fact that Safarova is 90 spots higher in the rankings and consider the circumstances at hand. The left-handed Czech was three points from the Montreal final, holding a commanding 5-1 lead over Li, when she collapsed and lost six straight games. Collateral damage from that gut-wrenching defeat could leave the Czech short on confidence against the feisty Oudin, whose best moments have come at the Open: She became a brand name in the U.S. with her inspired run to the 2009 quarterfinals as a 17-year-old, then partnered Jack Sock to win the mixed doubles title last year.
Oudin trains at the National Tennis Center, has been living in New York, and if she can get off quickly and apply her intensity to get the home crowd, involved she has a shot for the upset. Ultimately, Safarova has more weapons, and her lefty cross-court forehand to Oudin's weaker backhand wing is a winning pattern—if she can keep calm. It's tempting to pick Oudin, but Safarova has been in better form recently despite that train wreck of a loss in Canada.
The Pick: Safarova in three sets.
**Court 13: Sabine Lisicki (16) vs. Sorana Cirstea
<em>Head-to-head: Cirstea leads 3-0</em>**
A clash of talented, 22-year-old aggressive baseliners could be one of the most competitive women's matches of opening day. The head-to-head record is a bit deceptive, as two of their three meetings have gone the distance.
If Lisicki is landing her heavy first serve with regularity, it will be the biggest weapon on the court. Since knocking top-seeded Maria Sharapova out of Wimbledon, Lisicki is just 2-3, with all five matches going the distance.
Cirstea can be a streaky player because she plays fairly flat, does not like to defend, and is prone to prematurely taking the first strike down the line. Though Lisicki tends to be more consistent, Cirstea can be more explosive. The Romanian has come up big against seeds in majors: Cirstea upset U.S. Open champion Samantha Stosur in the first round of the Australian Open, and ousted 2011 French Open champion Li Na at Wimbledon. She should be eager to defeat yet another seed and improve on successive opening-round U.S. Open exits.
The Pick: Cirstea in three sets.
**Court 13: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (17) vs. Daniela Hantuchova
<em>Head-to-head: Pavlyuchenkova leads 4-1</em>**
Hantuchova has lost in the opening round in seven of her last 12 tournaments, but has an opportunity to make a first-round statement here. A decade removed from her quarterfinal run in New York, the 29-year-old is a clean ball-striker, sound in all phases of the game, and possesses more major experience than the 21-year-old Russian.
Hantuchova is the more polished player, but Pavlyuchenkova is the more powerful player. Given the fact Pavlyuchenkova is defending quarterfinal points and has lost eight opening-round matches this season, you have to believe she's vulnerable against the veteran. Still, if she doesn't succumb to the pressure and lose her range on serve, this match is on her racquet. The 2006 U.S. Open junior champion has won seven of her last 10 matches and has suffered just one first-round loss in her last 18 majors, while Hantuchova has failed to survive the first round in three of her last six Slams.
The Pick: Pavlyuchenkova in two sets.