We all love to hit the screaming winner that lands just inside the court. But as good as these all-or-nothing bombs might feel, they really aren’t what win matches. Instead, victory is built around those less spectacular, high-percentage shots that you can make over and over again. The pros understand the concept of playing the percentages completely. After all, when paying your mortgage depends on smart shot selection you quickly learn not to go for the lines. But club players, on the other hand, often succumb to the lure of instant gratification by trying—and usually missing—difficult shots even when the odds are stacked against them.
Here’s a technique that works exceptionally well when I’m trying to teach my students how to make wise shot choices. Whenever you make an error ask yourself: Was that a shot I would’ve liked to have made (low-percentage)? Or was that a shot I was likely to pull off (high-percentage)? The more you ask yourself this simple question, the more you’ll begin to reign yourself in and go for shots you’re likely to make as opposed to those you’d like to hit if you had Roger Federer’s talent. And that’s the first step toward learning how to play the odds.
As a 10-year-old student once told me “Coach, you really want me to like likely shots, don’t you?” I couldn’t have said it better myself.