Toronto Betting Preview: Who will capitalize on a draw without Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz?

You know the US Open is close when some of the world’s top players touch down in Toronto for the National Bank Open presented by Rogers. This year’s Masters 1000 event in Canada will be missing some big names, as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Jack Draper and Novak Djokovic are just a few of the players that have pulled out on the men’s side. But this is still going to be a fun tournament to follow, and we should see a real sense of urgency from other players that suddenly have a shot at taking home a big hard-court trophy. Let’s dive into all of it with a tournament betting preview, featuring analysis on the court conditions and some players to watch. I’ll also give out a pick to win.

Recent National Bank Open Winners

2019: Rafael Nadal
2021: Daniil Medvedev
2022: Pablo Carreno Busta
2023: Jannik Sinner
2024: Alexei Popyrin

National Bank Open Betting Odds

Alexander Zverev (+550)
Taylor Fritz (+650)
Alex de Minaur (+900)
Daniil Medvedev (10-1)
Ben Shelton (10-1)
Joao Fonseca (16-1)
Jakub Mensik (18-1)
Arthur Fils (25-1)
Holger Rune (28-1)
Felix Auger-Aliassime (28-1)

National Bank Open Conditions

In 2023, when the men last played in Toronto, Tennis Abstract’s Surface Speed for this tournament was 1.07. That means that players hit 7% more aces than they would have on a tour-average surface. That was significantly more than Cincinnati, which is considered one of the fastest surfaces on tour.

It undoubtedly helps to have a big serve and some raw baseline power here—that helps anywhere. But don't make the mistake of thinking that's all that matters.

National Bank Open Players To Watch

Holger Rune (28-1): I’m interested in seeing what happens with Rune over the next couple of weeks. The Dane is one of the most talented players on tour, but he pulled out of the Mubadala Citi DC Open with a back injury. A slew of health issues since the start of the season has stalled his momentum. When Rune beat Alcaraz in the Barcelona final, that felt like it could have been a season-changing win. Instead, he hasn’t done anything since.

Rune insists he feels good heading into this tournament, and this will be his first event since doing a short training bloc with Andre Agassi. Will the Dane take anything from that short-term partnership? Rune’s returning has always been an issue, so working with one of the greatest returners of all time could help him quite a bit.

Denis Shapovalov (33-1): Both Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime should be licking their chops when looking at this draw. The two Canadians have a chance to do some damage this week, but let’s focus on Shapovalov. This year, the talented southpaw has posted the highest winning percentage (59.4%) in a season of his entire career. Shapovalov is also coming off a title run in Los Cabos. While he had to beat Govind Nanda, Tristan Schoolkate, Adam Walton and Aleksandar Kovacevic to win that event, Shapovalov handled his business with ease, winning the tournament without dropping a set. He also won six of the eight sets he played by a score of 6-2 or better.

If Shapovalov can handle his nerves and keep his double-fault percentage down this week, there’s no reason he can’t go far in front of his home crowd.

National Bank Open Pick To Win

Daniil Medvedev (10-1): I’m not making this pick with a lot of confidence. With no Sinner, Alcaraz or Djokovic, this tournament can legitimately go to anybody. However, when trying to pick out a winner, you’re going to want to find somebody from the top half of the draw; the bottom half is loaded with good hard-court players. Well, why not Medvedev? Getting the ball by him is still incredibly difficult. He’s as good as it gets when it comes to defending the baseline and counterpunching. Medvedev’s serve has also been trending upwards. His hold percentage (82.6%) and ace rate (10.3%) are up from last year, and he was making first serves at an impressive clip in DC before the heat got to him in a loss to Corentin Moutet. Well, if the serve continues to give opponents problems, there’s a good chance he finishes the hard-court season strong. And Medvedev has won this tournament before.