Scanning down the many tiny names in the men’s U.S. Open draw—some bolstered by a self-important seeding number, others saddled with a scarlet Q for “qualifier”—two thoughts come to mind. The first: Roger Federer is at the top, and that makes sense. The second: It’s a big field.
The first reaction is familiar. For four of the last five years, Federer’s name could be found in the same spot in the Open draw, and in each of those years he was the last guy standing when the tournament ended. The second reaction, though, is new. Despite his recent assault on the record books, the name “Roger Federer” doesn’t loom quite as large this time. Even though he is back at No. 1, he has been proven mortal in the last year and a half. More important, the number of men who have entrenched themselves just behind him in the rankings and given themselves a plausible shot at this title has grown—the Big 4 of a season ago could reasonably be called the Big 6 today, with the additions of Andy Roddick and Juan Martin del Potro. And, in case you missed it, Sam Querrey, a dark horse in Federer’s quarter, just won the U.S. Open Series.
These are positive developments. You might even say this is an ideal situation, if such a thing existed in the never-satisfied mind of a tennis fan—the tournament is not a foregone conclusion, but not exactly a free-for-all, either. Let’s see where, in between those two poles, it might fall.
First Quarter
Federer opens, almost certainly at night, with American teen Devin Britton. We’ve heard a lot about how Britton serves and volleys, a fact that at least should make this match worth a look. Beyond that, there’s a lot of what you might call “Federer fodder” in this section. Lleyton Hewitt has lost his last 13 matches to him; James Blake is 1-9 against him; Robin Soderling is 0-11 and seems to enjoy, or at least expect, the beatings; and the next highest seed, Nikolay Davydenko, is 0-12. Besides all that, Federer has won the last two majors and just took care of some unfinished business in Cincinnati by beating Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, each for the first time in 2009. Oh, he also, in my opinion, plays his best tennis in Ashe Stadium.
Still, if recent history serves, there will be a speed bump, à la Tommy Haas, Igor Andreev and Tomas Berdych, along the way. Could that be Querrey? I’m at a loss to see who else it might be, but that’s kind of the nature of speed bumps: they tend to come out of nowhere.
First-round match to watch: Two solid vets, Paul-Henri Mathieu and Mikhail Youzhny, square off.
Semifinalist: Federer
Second Quarter
Will we see a rematch of that edgy evening (a highlight of the 2008 Open), the quarterfinal between Djokovic and Andy Roddick? They’re slotted to go at it again in the same round. You have to think Roddick will hold up his end of the bargain this time. He’s been as reliable as anyone in 2009, he’ll be back on his custom-made night stage in New York City, and his draw is hardly a frightening one. He gets a very talented “journeyman” in his opener, Bjorn Phau, then could face Dmitry Tursunov, John Isner (who took a set from Roddick in D.C. this summer), Fernando Verdasco (who took him to five sets at Flushing a couple years ago), or the semi-resurgent Tommy Haas.
As for Djokovic, as always, it will come down to motivation. Last year Roddick joked about the Serb’s various phantom injuries and illnesses, which was enough to light the Djokovic fire—as he so memorably put it, he thought that Roddick’s words were “not nice.” Looking at his draw, I don’t think he’ll need to play with anger to make it to the quarters. The bold-faced names in his way are Ivan Ljubicic, Igor Andreev, and Radek Stepanek, all decent, all capable of an upset, but none reliable enough to bet on.
If they do make the quarters, Roddick will be coming in with a 3-0 record against Djokovic this year. Even worse for the Serb, the two have patched up their differences. As long as he keeps his mouth shut beforehand, Roddick should be okay.
First-round match to watch: Djokovic vs. Ljubicic
Semifinalist: Roddick
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Nadal, who has never reached a U.S. Open final, gets a tough test right away against Gasquet. (Nick Laham/Getty Images)Third Quarter**
The big question as of yesterday was where the No. 3 seed, Rafael Nadal, would fall. He’s in Andy Murray’s half, and in the same quarter with No. 7 seed and sometime rival Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez and his first-round opponent Richard Gasquet, who is returning in semi-disgrace. As John McEnroe said shortly after the draw was announced, this is obviously a tricky opener for Rafa. Gasquet may be rusty, but he’ll still be the Microwave (a rusty microwave, that’s what he’ll be); he heated up in memorable fashion here a couple years ago against Lleyton Hewitt. Nadal, who will be only slightly less rusty after his truncated 2009, is 6-0 against Gasquet, but four of those matches have gone three sets.
After that, it should get easier before it gets harder for Rafa. His third-round opponent might be Nicolas Almagro; his fouth-rounder might be against Monfils. But the quarter should be a test of Nadal’s knees and of his consistency, which was the one thing that was glaringly missing from his game in Montreal and Cincy. Three guys in the other half, Tsonga, Berdych and Gonzo, have beaten him before.
First-round intra-national matches to watch: Gonzalez vs. Nicolas Massu, both of Chile; Monfils vs. Jeremy Chardy, both of France
Best first-round match-up of names: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. U.S. wildcard Chase Buchanan
Semifinalist: Nadal
Fourth Quarter
You might think that moving down to the final line of the draw would put more pressure on Andy Murray. But I’d say he’s flying under the radar compared to the expectations he faced as the pre-tournament favorite in Melbourne and the hope of a nation at Wimbledon. This time he’s neither. Plus, he’s already lost to Federer this summer, a possible blessing in disguise that should take some pressure off him should they meet in the Open final for a second straight year.
First things first, however: Murray faces a potent opponent right off the bat in the form of Ernests Gulbis. Murray, irked by a reference to his gamesmanship by the Latvian, beat Gulbis down with obvious relish at Wimbledon this year. I doubt he’ll come out with that attitude again—he’s not that angry, is he?—but he should still survive, if only because Gulbis hasn’t figured out a way to maintain his highest level over three sets. Arrive early for this one, as the first set could be a barn-burner.
After that, Murray might get a look at Ivo Karlovic in the third round and perhaps old junior colleagues Marin Cilic or Stan Wawrinka in the fourth. But speaking of old junior colleagues, the biggest and most dangerous of all, del Potro, may await Murray in the quarters. The steadily ascending Argentine is a sexy pick to win the whole thing, but Murray remains a tough match-up for him—he’s 1-4 against the Scot, and his only win came on clay in Madrid this spring. I would say it’s del Potro’s turn for a breakthrough, except that Murray hasn’t had his yet.
First-round matches to watch: Murray-Gulbis; 2000 champion Marat Safin, in his final Open, vs. Jurgen Melzer; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs. Fabrice Santoro, who is also in his final Open. It’s too bad they couldn’t have gone out against each other.
Semifinalist: Murray
Semifinals: Federer d. Roddick; Murray d. Nadal
Final: Again, I think Murray will be happy to feel a little less pressure in the second week of the Open than he did in Australia and Wimbledon, and his recent loss to Federer should make him looser. There’s nothing worse, as in the case of Andre Agassi vs. Pete Sampras, than beating a guy in a bunch of second-tier events and then losing to him in the one that counts; now Federer and Murray will come in on fairly even psychological terms. But the Scot, who has won two hardcourt Masters events this year, won’t lack for motivation. He’s been bothered by a seeming lack of respect from Federer in the past. It won’t be easy, though—to win it all, Murray might have to knock off del Potro, Nadal, and Federer in the course of three days. He’s never shown he can go the distance over two weeks—as Federer said in Melbourne, the Slams are a “different animal” than the Masters. But the same was true for Ivan Lendl and Agassi through the early years of their careers. Murray is going to win a Slam someday, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll ever be more ready than he is right now.
Murray d. Federer
Champion: Andy Murray
Steve Tignor is the executive editor of TENNIS magazine.