Kerber and Pliskova know each other’s games very well—this will be their seventh meeting in the last two and a half years. What have they discovered? Judging by their words, it’s the player who won’t be ranked No. 1 on Monday who has learned to believe she can win.
“I definitely feel confident against her,” Pliskova says.
As for the player who will become No. 1, she sounds cautious.
“I think my serve has to be very good,” Kerber said.
How did this reversal-in-confidence happen? After all, Kerber leads their head to head 4-3, and she’s the one who will be playing in her third major final of 2016. Pliskova has never been to the second week of a Slam before this, let alone a championship match.
Their relative confidence levels stem first from the fact that Pliskova beat Kerber easily, 6-3, 6-1, in the Cincinnati final less than a month ago. Kerber was trying to become the world No. 1, but it was Pliskova who was far superior that day. And while Kerber hasn’t dropped a set in six matches at the Open, it’s Pliskova who arguably has had the more impressive run at Flushing Meadows. Not many players have done what the Czech has done here: Knock off both Venus and Serena Williams.
Just as impressive—and scary for Kerber—is how Pliskova has been winning: She’s been dictating with her serve and her laser-like ground strokes. What will Kerber be able to do to counter that if it continues?
“I have to move good,” Kerber said yesterday, “to bring a lot of balls back, and playing also more aggressive [than] I played in Cincinnati. I was just pushing too much the balls there, so I will think I will change this a little bit. Go for it, being aggressive.”
So far at the Open, Kerber has found a productive middle ground. She hits flat, she hits with depth, but she doesn’t take risks. She’ll need that depth to keep the go-for-broke Pliskova at bay, and she’ll need it on her return, especially on second balls. When Pliskova misses her first serve, she can be vulnerable.
Pliskova will have to deal with being in a major final for the first time, but she has already dealt with pressure this week against Venus and Serena. I think Kerber will feel more of that pressure on Saturday. Yes, she’s won a Slam this season, but she’s also lost in the Wimbledon and Olympic finals. Kerber doesn’t want to become No. 1, only to start gaining a reputation for coming in second best.