With the number of states with legalized sports gambling having increased to six in the past couple of months—and with nearly two dozen more states moving toward legalization—the listing of odds on national and international sporting events, including tennis matches, have become more prevalent and mainstream than ever before. So while the disclaimer “for entertainment purposes only” no longer applies in many areas where TENNIS.com is consumed, allow yourself to be entertained—and informed—by the following analysis of the one match today in which the underdog has a good chance of pulling off an upset.
While more than one mainstream media outlet described Tunisian qualifier Ons Jabeur’s win over world No. 8 Sloane Stephens in the Kremlin Cup’s Round of 16 on Wednesday as “stunning,” oddsmakers had listed Jabeur as only a slight underdog—her closing price ranged from as favorable as +125 at one online sportsbook to as unfavorable as +100 at another. That means a $1 wager on Jabeur would’ve paid off anywhere from $1.25 to $1.00, depending on where the wager was placed. Even the decisive manner in which Jabeur triumphed over Stephens by a 6-3, 6-2 score wasn’t entirely unexpected, as the 24-year-old world No. 101 had reached the Round of 16 with an impressive 6-1, 6-2 win as a slight favorite against Ekaterina Makarova.
Jabeur is now matched up with world No. 21 Anett Kontaveit with a spot in the semifinals on the line. Although Kontaveit has lost two of her last five matches going back to her loss to Aryna Sabalenka in the Wuhan final, of potentially greater concern is the fact that this will be Kontaveit’s 11th main-draw match in less than four weeks at three different locations over a pair of continents and spanning five time zones. History has shown that some of the world’s best players—those who tend to consistently play deep into tournaments—start to experience fatigue at this point in the year. While more than half of the 13 matches Kontaveit has played over the past month have lasted more than 1:50, only four of the 12 matches Jabeur has played over that same timeframe have lasted longer than 1:10.
Upset Pick of the Day, 10/18: Ons Jabeur +160
