US Open Final Preview: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

THE BREAK: Who was best dressed at the 2023 US Open?

The Open’s two women’s finalists had to keep their heads to get here. Gauff’s semifinal with Karolina Muchova was delayed for 50 minutes by a three-person climate protest after she had won the first set. Sabalenka was forced to come from a set down, and a break down in each of the last two sets, to escape Madison Keys.

Sabalenka was so close to being out of it that Gauff, in her post-match press conference, was only asked about what it would be like to play her countrywoman Keys. Still, she can hardly be surprised to be facing Sabalenka, who will become the No. 1 player in the world next week, and who has been the WTA’s most consistent Grand Slam performer this season.

These two have played five times: Gauff’s won three, Sabalenka two. For our purposes, the two most meaningful encounters were the two most recent, both of which took place on hard courts. Gauff edged out Sabalenka in Toronto last summer in a third-set tiebreaker, before Sabalenka came back and made quick work of Gauff at Indian Wells this spring, 6-4, 6-0. That will obviously give Sabalenka confidence on Saturday, but she’s taking the result with a grain of salt.

“Honestly, I would say that she has played much better [recently],” Sabalenka said of Gauff. “She improved a lot. So it’s a different player. We don’t like really thinking about that match.”

Sabalenka’s right, Gauff has improved a lot just in the past month—by leaps and bounds, really. Since Wimbledon, and since adding Brad Gilbert to her team, she’s won two titles and lost one match. But this will be different: She’s facing the tour’s best player, and she’s doing it in her first US Open final.

Gauff has improved by upping her aggression level, especially with her serve and backhand. She can still serve as big as she wants against Sabalenka, but otherwise it might be hard for her to game plan against this taller, stronger opponent. Will she be able to—or even want to—take the baseline attack away from her? Trying to fight fire with fire may not be a winning formula with Sabalenka. But Gauff also won’t want to simply defend and retrieve and hope Sabalenka has an off day. Once upon a time, that was a plausible strategy against her, but she’s not as prone to wild swings in form as she once was.

The serve will be one variable here. Gauff and Sabalenka have both struggled with nerves, technical breakdowns, and double faults in the past, and both seem to have put that past behind them. But service yips have a way of laying dormant for years, and then reappearing at the most inopportune moments.

The crowd will be another variable. It will obviously be massively behind Gauff, but Sabalenka is hoping that her experience playing Keys in the semis will help her.

“Of course I would prefer to have someone else [where the] crowd would be, like, a little bit probably like same to both players,” Sabalenka said. “But, I mean, today’s match I think [against Keys] is gonna help me in the finals, because I mean, I’ll be fine with this support. I’ll be all right.”

“I’m still hoping that probably some of them will be supporting me.,” she added with a smile. “Will be just a little bit. Just sometimes, please. Please.”

Gauff will likely need the extra energy and emotion. To combat Sabalenka’s power advantage, she’s probably going to need to play a well-above-average match. That could mean serving exceptionally well, or not missing from the ground, or getting hot with her backhand, or taking the net away.

Sabalenka, by contrast, can probably play her normal level and expect to win. Winner: Sabalenka