US Open men's preview: Is someone ready to spoil a Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic rematch?

Two players stand head and shoulders above the rest of the pack on the men’s side: Top seed Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic. They’ve played three times this season; two of those matches were classics, and the other was on its way to becoming one before Alcaraz cramped.

Can they give us another one to cap the Grand Slam season in New York? That’s the question on most people’s minds as the tournament begins. Here’s a look at who may have the tougher road to a final Sunday showdown. (Click here for the full draw.)

First Quarter

There are many reasons to make Alcaraz the favorite. He’s No. 1. He’s the defending champion. He just won Wimbledon. Most important, though, may be the fact that the US Open is best-of-five sets. The 20-year-old was exceptionally erratic in the two tune-up events in Toronto and Cincinnati; having that extra set to play with will give him more time to find his game if he loses it for a stretch.

But making it through his quarter and half of the draw won’t be easy. He has more obstacles than Djokovic. That includes a possible third-round match with an improving Jordan Thompson, who took Alcaraz to three sets in Cincinnati, or with Dan Evans, who just won a title in Washington. A possible fourth-rounder against Cam Norrie, who has two wins over Alcaraz in the last 13 months. And a possible quarterfinal against Jannik Sinner, who was one point from beating Alcaraz here last year, or Alexander Zverev, who did beat him at Roland Garros in 2022, and who has been rounding into his old form since Wimbledon.

Alcaraz is the favorite to come out of this quarter, but he can’t afford to continue to be as up and down as he has been so far in August.

Dark Horse: Stan Wawrinka. He turned back the clock for a night in Cincy against Frances Tiafoe, and he has a manageable draw to start.

First-round matches to watch: Sinner vs. Yannick Hanfmann, Wawrinka vs. Yoshihito Nishioka, Zverev vs. Aleksander Vukic

Semifinalist: Zverev

Second Quarter

This has been Daniil Medvedev’s favorite Slam in the past, but what’s the status of his game as he returns? He’s coming off losses to Zverev in Cincy and Alex de Minaur in Toronto—both mild upsets, considering that the Russian is No. 3 in the world. And while he made the semis at Wimbledon, he took a dispiritingly one-sided loss to Alcaraz when he got there.

Still, Medvedev has been a winner, a finalist and a semifinalist in New York, and his draw seems favorable. He could have a tricky second-rounder against Max Purcell, who plays a net-rushing style that may give Medvedev trouble. He could have a rematch with de Minaur in the fourth round. And he might play Hubert Hurkacz or Andrey Rublev in the quarters. But an in-form Medvedev should beat any of those opponents.

Hello: Alex Michelsen. The 18-year-old wild card from California will start against 35-year-old Albert Ramos-Viñolas.

Goodbye: John Isner. The 16-year veteran, who also has a wild card, is playing his final tournament. He’ll begin it against Facundo Diaz Acosta of Argentina.

First-round matches to watch: Ugo Humbert vs. Matteo Berrettini, Rublev vs. Emil Ruusuvuori. The Finn just beat the Russian in Cincy

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Third Quarter

The Scandi boys, Casper Ruud and Holger Rune, are the top two seeds here, but their recent results may not make them the favorites. In Toronto and Cincy, they went 1-4 combined. That could change, of course. Last year Ruud went all the way to the final in New York, and Rune may be the most improved player other than Alcaraz over the last two years.

Also, neither has a brutal draw. The three seeds in Ruud’s half are Sebastian Korda, Adrian Mannarino and an out-of-form Frances Tiafoe. The three seeds in Rune’s half are Alexander Bublik, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Tommy Paul. The latter may qualify as a semifinal dark horse: He went that far at the Australian Open, and he just split two close matches with Alcaraz.

Question Mark: Tiafoe. Last year he broke through with a win over Rafael Nadal on his way to the semis. Can this crowd favorite channel enough crowd energy to leave his current mini-slump behind?

Young American: Ben Shelton. The Melbourne quarterfinalist will start against Pedro Cachin of Argentina.

Semifinalist: Paul

Fourth Quarter

The Open is Djokovic’s hard-luck Slam. He was banned from entering the U.S. last year; he was exhausted by the time he made the final in 2021; he hit a lineswoman with a ball in 2020; and he retired with an injury in 2019. He’s won 10 Australian Opens, but just three US Opens, the last coming five years ago.

Djokovic will be motivated to end that dry spell. This year, for the first time since 2017, he lost at Wimbledon, and he would surely like to put himself two Slam titles ahead of Nadal before Rafa comes back for his final season in 2024.

It shouldn’t hurt that Djokovic’s draw is smoother than Alcaraz’s. The seeds on his side are Laslo Djere, Francisco Cerdundolo and a recently injured Felix Auger-Aliassiame. There are a potential obstacles in the quarters, including Stefanos Tsitsipas or Taylor Fritz, but Djokovic has always had the edge on both.

Young American: Ethan Quinn. The NCAA champ from Georgia could face Djokovic in the second round.

Not-as-Young American: Chris Eubanks. He’s just 3-4 since his quarterfinal splash at Wimbledon, but the crowd in New York will be ready for him.

First-round matches to watch: Tsitsipas vs. Milos Raonic, Fritz vs. Steve Johnson

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Semifinals: Zverev d. Medvedev; Djokovic d. Paul

Final: Djokovic d. Zverev