Who has the tougher draw, Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz? | 2025 US Open men's preview

Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and…

Is there room for anyone else in the US Open conversation as the tournament begins? Since the start of the clay swing five months ago, the men’s tour has been all about the Big 2.

Once upon a time, back in the late-aughts, that was also the case with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. They met in the later rounds at the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon multiple times, but somehow never faced off in New York. Time after time, one of them came up one round short of the other.

Sinner and Alcaraz don’t have to worry about a repeat of that curse. They’ve already played at the Open, and they gave us one of the greatest—and latest-ending—of all night-session classics. But can both of them go all the way to the final for the third straight Slam?

👉 Read More: Is a Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz US Open final too much to ask for?

👉 Click here to view the full 2025 US Open men's singles draw

Here’s a look at their respective paths, who might stand in their way, and who else is worth watching as the Open begins.

Who has the tougher draw, Sinner or Alcaraz?

Sinner’s is not a cakewalk, exactly, but there are a few reasons why Alcaraz’s will likely be the rockier road.

First off, he’ll come up against 6'11" Reilly Opelka in his opening match. The American is ranked 66th and still finding his way on tour after a lengthy injury layoff. But as a self-described servebot, he’s the definition of a guy that no one wants to face in an early round—or any round, really. His ability to hold serve and send sets to tiebreakers makes matches against him feel like crapshoots. There’s a ton of pressure on every point, and even the best players will only have a few opportunities.

👉 Read More: 2025 US Open draw: Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz, Coco Gauff-Iga Swiatek in same halves

Alcaraz and Opelka have never met, but Opelka has a couple of good wins, over Alex de Minaur and Tomas Machac, at his last two events. On the plus side for Alcaraz, Opelka’s size can make best-of-five a tough go; his career record at the majors is 16-19.

There are good players elsewhere in Alcaraz’s section. He could play Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round, and either Ben Shelton or Casper Ruud in the quarters. If he makes it past them, he might see Novak Djokovic in the semis. It’s easy to forget now, but Djokovic beat Alcaraz at the last hard-court Slam, in Melbourne.

Sinner, by contrast, doesn’t have a nerve-wracking, Opelka-style challenge to contend with, and instead of Djokovic in the semis, he’s projected to play either Alexander Zverev or Alex de Minaur in that round. The high seeds in his quarter included Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik, Lorenzo Musetti, Flavio Cobolli, and No. 5 Jack Draper. Only Bublik owns a recent win over him. Sinner beat Draper in straight sets in the semis here last year.

Does Djokovic have a chance at No. 25?

Djokovic seemingly has one last goal in his pursuit of undisputed GOAT-dom: To win his 25th major title, thus passing Margaret Court and becoming the all-time leader on either tour. He has achieved everything he has wanted in the sport, from most weeks at No. 1 to Olympic gold to Davis Cup glory to beating his rivals Federer and Nadal more often than he lost to them.

Judging by his own indications this season, the 38-year-old doesn’t have many more chances at No. 25 left. He mentioned after Roland Garros that he might never be back there, and he said his goal at Wimbledon is simply to play on Centre Court again. He also skipped both US Open warm-ups tournaments, in Toronto and Cincinnati.

Djokovic has said recently that he saves his best for the majors, and that’s still true. He has made the semis at all three in 2025. But each time he has been frustrated that, by the time he gets there, he doesn’t have the energy to match up against his top-ranked, and much younger, opponents. In Australia and at Wimbledon, he was too banged up to compete in the semis.

👉 Read More: After Wimbledon exit, can Novak Djokovic win a 25th Grand Slam in 2025?

But Djokovic might have caught a break with his draw in New York.

His projected quarterfinal opponent will be the fourth-seeded Fritz. The American made the final last year, but he is 0-10 against Djokovic. If he makes the semis, Djokovic won’t have to face Sinner, who eliminated him at the French and Wimbledon. Instead, his opponent may be Alcaraz; as I mentioned above, he beat the Spaniard in Australia this year.

Djokovic’s climb will still be steep. He’ll start against a quality opponent in Learner Tien, and may have to go through Alex Michelsen, either Frances Tiafoe or Holger Rune, and Jakub Mensik just to get to Fritz. But if someone else can do the dirty work of knocking off either Sinner or Alcaraz, he’ll have as much of a chance at the title at anyone else.

What are the first-round matches to watch?

• Carlos Alcaraz vs. Reilly Opelka — Exactly the place, and the round, where Carlitos didn’t want to have to face the 6-foot-11 American for the first time
• Lorenzo Musetti vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
• Alexander Zverev vs. Alejandro Tabilo — The Chilean nearly won their only meeting
• Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Gael Monfils — Potential second round
• Novak Djokovic vs. Learner Tien
• Frances Tiafoe vs. Yoshihito Nishioka
• Holger Rune vs. US Open specialist Botic Van de Zandschulp
• Jakub Mensik vs. Nicolas Jarry
• Joao Fonseca vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
• Jordan Thompson vs. Corentin Moutet — The Frenchman seems made to get on the Aussie’s nerves
• Daniil Medvedev vs. Benjamin Bonzi — They played in the first round at Wimbledon, and Bonzi won in four

U.S. wild card to watch: Darwin Blanch — The 17-year-old Kalamazoo winner, and student of Juan Carlos Ferrero, could play Tiafoe in the second round