On Friday, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz will battle for a spot in the US Open final. These two played each other in the Wimbledon semifinals, and Alcaraz came away with a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win. I’m not expecting this one to be as straightforward, as Medvedev is a completely different player on hard courts than he is on grass. The Russian won this tournament in 2021 and was unbeatable on this surface at the start of 2023. I expect Alcaraz to win this match, but I also think Medvedev will be more competitive in New York than he was in London.
However, my favorite pick on this match is taking the Over on breaks of serve.
This season—and over the last 52 weeks—Alcaraz and Medvedev are the top two players on the break percentage leaderboard at Tennis Abstract. That means that they break their opponents at a higher rate than anybody else on the planet. Both of these players put a lot of pressure on their opponents, and I don’t see any reason that’ll be different when they play one another.