On Friday, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz will battle for a spot in the US Open final. These two played each other in the Wimbledon semifinals, and Alcaraz came away with a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win. I’m not expecting this one to be as straightforward, as Medvedev is a completely different player on hard courts than he is on grass. The Russian won this tournament in 2021 and was unbeatable on this surface at the start of 2023. I expect Alcaraz to win this match, but I also think Medvedev will be more competitive in New York than he was in London.

However, my favorite pick on this match is taking the Over on breaks of serve.

This season—and over the last 52 weeks—Alcaraz and Medvedev are the top two players on the break percentage leaderboard at Tennis Abstract. That means that they break their opponents at a higher rate than anybody else on the planet. Both of these players put a lot of pressure on their opponents, and I don’t see any reason that’ll be different when they play one another.




It also helps a lot that the conditions in New York are the way they are. It won’t be quite as hot on Friday as it has been the rest of the week, but it’s still supposed to be uncomfortably humid. That would make it much harder to hold serve, as the ball won’t fly through the air as easily as normal. It won’t bounce as quickly off the court either. That’s why there has been a lot of matches filled with breaks, including high-profile battles such as Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner and Medvedev beating Andrey Rublev.

The only thing to worry about with this play is the potential for rain. If it does end up pouring, this match will be played with a closed roof. That would make the conditions a lot better for the server, but it still wouldn’t doom this bet. There were eight breaks of serve when these two played at Wimbledon, and nothing favors the server like grass does.

Bet: Over 6.5 Total Breaks of Serve (-135)