US Open Best Bet: Sloane Stephens vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia

For my first pick of the 2023 US Open, I’m going against an American. I’m a big fan of Sloane Stephens and still think there’s some good tennis left in the 30-year-old. She has had trouble living up to her 2017 US Open title, and things have been ugly over the last few years. However, she has made a few improvements since the start of 2023, which is why so many people believe in her heading into this event. But I think she got a tough draw with Beatriz Haddad Maia.

These two have only met once in the past, four years ago in Acapulco, in which Haddad Maia came away with a 6-3, 6-3 win over Stephens. I’d be surprised if the Brazilian isn’t able to move to 2-0 against Stephens, who can still rack up unforced errors. Sure, her elite athleticism gives her the ability to play some great defense, but that might not do her a lot of good in this matchup. Haddad Maia is a brick wall along the baseline, so her main objective will be to put balls in play and force errors from Stephens. And I ultimately think the American, who is prone to overhitting, will make too many of them.

It’s also hard to ignore the fact that Haddad Maia has a 72.1% hold percentage in 2023. That’s a lot higher than Stephens’ 64.2%, and I think that difference on serve could swing this match in Haddad Maia's direction. Stephens just isn’t going to have many openings if she isn’t comfortably holding, even though she is a very good returner.

Another thing that’s worth noting is that Stephens just lost 6-1, 6-3 to Sara Sorribes Tormo in Cleveland. That’s not a great sign for the Amerian heading into this match, as there are some similarities between Sorribes Tormo and Haddad Maia. The Brazilian definitely plays a little more offense than the Spaniard, but both players compete diligently on every single point. That takes its toll on opponents, and I ultimately think Stephens will wilt under the pressure in this first-round encounter.

Pick: Haddad Maia To Win (-130)