US Open men’s preview: Favorites Sinner, Djokovic, Alcaraz each carry own hint of vulnerability

The Grand Slam race for 2024 is barreling to the finish line in New York, and just about everyone who’s anyone is healthy enough to play. That’s a victory in itself, and should bode well for the competition over the next two weeks.

The ATP’s current ruling triumvirate—Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz—have divided up the major events this season. Sinner won the Australian Open, Alcaraz won Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and Djokovic won Olympic gold. Will one of them continue that run of dominance, or will someone else rise up to surprise them, and us?

The draw is out, and the players have been assigned their lanes. Here are five things to think about as the last two-week race of the year gets underway.

👉 READ: Women's US Open preview, and our Expert Picks

1. How does ATP’s current Big 3 look right now?

Sinner, Djokovic, and Alcaraz aren’t injured at the moment, and each has won at least one significant title recently—Alcaraz at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; Djokovic at the Olympics; and Sinner at the Cincinnati Open. Yet each comes in with at least a hint of vulnerability.

Alcaraz played what he called the worst match of his life in a three-set defeat to Gael Monfils in Cincy last week. He struggled with the fast courts and windy conditions, two things he’ll likely have to deal with in New York as well.

The last time we saw Djokovic, he was on his knees, in tears, celebrating his Olympic win. Since then, the party has continued, and he has skipped August’s two Masters 1000s. Which means we don’t know exactly where he stands, mentally or physically. How is his recently repaired right knee, and where is his head after he achieved his long-delayed dream of gold? The Open has often been a Slam too far for him.

As for Sinner, he looked good winning on fast courts in Cincy, and the rumor is that the surface is nearly as speedy at the Open. But it’s what happened off-court that might be harder to overcome. How will he deal with having his two positive doping tests from the spring made public? The media will surely pepper him with questions; the Open crowd may or may not boo him; and his fellow players might resent the fact that the world No. 1 went unpunished.

All of which is to say is that there are reasons for other players to like their chances.

2. Who has the toughest and easiest draw?

As they did at Roland Garros, Sinner and Alcaraz, as well as No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev, are in the top half. That leaves Djokovic with Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud in the bottom half. Advantage, Djokovic, from that perspective.

But that may not be true in the early going. Djokovic’s potential second-round opponent, fellow Serb Laslo Djere, took him to five sets here last year. In the third round, he could face Alexei Popyrin, who just won his first Masters 1000 title, in Montreal. In the round of 16, he might play one of two local favorites, Frances Tiafoe or Ben Shelton. Last year, Djokovic famously hung up on Shelton in the semis; a rematch would be fun.

Sinner’s road, if form holds, would look like this: Mackenzie McDonald/Alex Michelsen/Nicolas Jarry/Tommy Paul/Medvedev. If Paul can get up a head of steam at home, he could be dangerous in the fourth round. The American has a win and two losses against the Italian.

Alcaraz probably has the weakest overall section of the top three. Going by the seeds, his most likely quarterfinal opponent will either be Hubert Hurkacz or Alex de Minaur. And the highest-seeded players close to him are Sebastian Korda, Alejandro Tabilo and Jack Draper. Of those, Draper, who beat Alcaraz at Queen’s Club this year, may be the most dangerous. Still, Alcaraz will have to shake off his ugly loss in Cincy and get ready for whatever conditions—hot, windy, noisy, fast—he may encounter in the Big Apple.

3. What are the early-round matches to watch for?

First round:

• Arthur Fils vs. Learner Tien. Tien is a rising U.S. teen who has had a breakout run in Winston-Salem this week.
• Tommy Paul vs. Lorenzo Sonego. The U.S. draw-makers didn’t do the 14th seed any favors by pitting him against this veteran flame-thrower.
• Jack Draper vs. Zhizhen Zhang
• Alejandro Tabilo vs. David Goffin
• Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. fellow three-namer Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
• Holger Rune vs. Brandon Nakashima. The Californian has had a good summer.
• Lorenzo Musetti vs. Reilly Opelka. The big American should get a rousing welcome back after three years away, and if the courts are as fast advertised, he could be a tough out.
• Ben Shelton vs. Dominic Thiem. The 2020 champion may be saying good-bye to New York quickly.

Second round:

• Casper Ruud vs. Gael Monfils
• Taylor Fritz vs. Matteo Berrettini
• Sinner vs. Alex Michelsen. Michelsen is a raw young American, but he has height and power, and he’ll have the crowd.
• Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov. The Spaniard and the Canadian have played just once, on clay last year.

4. Who might pull a few upsets or make a surprise run?

• Medvedev has hardly won a match since Wimbledon, but he still loves his hard courts and is a three-time Open finalist. If Sinner slips, he’ll have a path to the semis.
• Is Felix Auger-Aliassime ready to make some inroads at a Slam again? He was a semifinalist here three years ago, and has shown flashes of his old self in 2024. He could play Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round.
• Sebastian Korda won his biggest title in D.C. this summer, and he has a decent path to a fourth-rounder with Alcaraz.
• Alexander Zverev has had a season of near-misses. Here he has a Top 4 seeding and a manageable quarter—and he can only face Sinner, Alcaraz or Medvedev in the final.
• France Tiafoe has a new coach, David Witt, and together they reached a Masters 1000 final in Cincy. In the third round, he may have a chance to avenge his loss to Shelton in New York last year.

5. Who is going to win?

Semifinals: Alcaraz d. Medvedev; Djokovic d. Zverev

Final: Alcaraz d. Djokovic