Does Novak Djokovic have enough legs left to outrun Carlos Alcaraz? | US Open semifinal preview

NEW YORK—“It’s not going to get easier, I tell you that,” a smiling Novak Djokovic said when he was asked to describe “the road ahead” for him at the US Open.

Djokovic knows that all too well from his experience this season.

The good news is: He has reached the semifinals at each of the three majors in 2025. The bad news is: He has failed to win a set in any of those matches. At the Australian Open and Wimbledon, he picked up injuries along the way, and could only offer token resistance in the semis. In Melbourne, he retired after the first set against Alexander Zverev; at Wimbledon, he wasn’t physically ready to do battle with Jannik Sinner, and lost in straights.

Only at Roland Garros was Djokovic at full strength, but even with his many years of experience and his array of wily-veteran tactics, he couldn’t muster a set.

Read More: Djokovic, Alcaraz bring rivalry to all four majors

Will the fourth time be a charm?

There are a couple of reasons for Djokovic and his fans to believe this one will be different.

First and most important, he appears to be healthy. He has called the trainer out on a couple of occasions at this Open, but the problems proved to be passing. He did just survive a tough four-setter against Taylor Fritz that didn’t end until late Tuesday night, and at times during that match he did look weary. But he wasn’t pushed to the brink. A recovery in two days seems plausible.

“I definitely am not going with a white flag on the court,” Djokovic says. “The next couple of days is really key for me to really get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it’s needed.”

The second positive is that instead of Sinner, he’ll face Carlos Alcaraz. That might sound like jumping from the frying pan into the fire, but it’s a fire that Djokovic has endured recently. He has a 5-3 record against Alcaraz, and he’s 3-0 on hard courts. He also won their only meeting of 2025, in four sets, in the Australian Open quarterfinals.

Djokovic has been at his savviest against Alcaraz, surprising the Spaniard with his early aggressiveness, and holding up better in the clutch. He has had more success imposing his game on him than he has on Sinner.

“Would love to be fit enough to play and to play, you know, potentially five sets with Carlos,” Djokovic says. “I know that my best tennis is going to be required, but I’d rise to the occasion.”

Does Djokovic sound a little pessimistic for a guy with winning record against his opponent? Looking at Alcaraz’s form since the spring, he has a right to be. He has won five titles on three surfaces, and hasn’t dropped a set so far in New York.

“I think today I just played a really—or almost perfect match, I would say,” Alcaraz said after seeing off Jiri Lehecka on Tuesday. “So playing a quarterfinal of a Grand Slam, I’m feeling that way. It seems like, OK, just two more steps to do, and let’s see what happens.”

Lehecka is one thing, obviously, Djokovic quite another. Up until now, Alcaraz hasn’t been able to shed his sense of awe at the Serb, a mindset that may have contributed to his recent defeats. We’ll see if that’s still the case, or if his excellent run of play this spring and summer—he has won 43 of his last 45 matches—will finally take him to a place where Djokovic can no longer keep up.

“We all know Novak’s game,” Alcaraz says. “It doesn’t matter that he has been out of the tour since Wimbledon. Playing great matches here. I know he’s hungry. I know his ambition for more, so let’s see.”

Let’s see, indeed: This is a tough pick. Djokovic may still have the mental and tactical edge over his younger opponent. But will Alcaraz’s youth, athleticism, shot-making, and self-assurance render that moot?

I’m going to take my cue from Djokovic, who, like I mentioned above, sounded surprisingly skeptical about his chances on Tuesday night.

“It’s just that I’m not really sure how the body is going to feel in the next few days,” the 38-year-old said. “But I’m going to do my very best with my team to be fit for that.

“There’s going to be a lot of running involved, that’s for sure.”

In other words, the road ahead isn’t going to get easier. Winner: Alcaraz