Warning Shots

“I definitely didn’t think I would be here at the beginning of the week, or the beginning of the two weeks, but it feels pretty excellent.”—Serena Williams, after beating Maria Sharapova in straight sets to win the Australian Open in January.

“Can’t say I thought I would win eight, especially in the beginning of the week....I had to improvise in some of my matches...Definitely feels good, and I’m happy to get through it.”—Serena, after beating Carla Suarez Navarro 6-2, 6-0 to win her eighth title in Miami, in April.

“That was a big wake-up call.”—Serena, after winning both of her singles matches against Italy in Fed Cup in April.

“I’m still trying to do the best I can out there. I’m going back and hitting some balls with my eyes closed wondering how they went in. Just here on a hope and a prayer, to be honest.”—Serena, after beating Suarez Navarro to reach the semifinals in Madrid this week.

Are you sensing a pattern? To open the 2015 season, Serena went undefeated in her first 24 matches, extended her win streak in Premier Mandatory events to 50, and lapped a WTA field that had collectively stumbled at the starter’s gate. Yet during that time, the world No. 1 rarely sounded satisfied with her game, or confident about her chances. In Miami, she said that some of her wins felt like losses, and in Madrid she even tried to sell us on the idea that Maria Sharapova, a woman Serena hasn’t lost to since 2004, was the favorite to win the tournament.

And it’s true, despite her record, not everything had gone perfectly for Serena. She was sick during the first week in Australia, her serve deserted her in Miami, and she hadn’t prepared the way she wanted for the shift to clay. But as the weeks went on and the wins continued, it was getting harder to believe that she was as surprised by her success as she claimed. It seemed that Serena had picked up a few superstitious tips from Rafael Nadal in the “Me? The favorite?” department.

But now we know that, at least for this week, Serena was right all along. She really wasn’t as prepared for clay or for Madrid, where she was the champion in 2012 and 2013, as she has been in recent years. On Friday, Serena lost for the first time in 2015, and for the first time in six matches against Petra Kvitova, 6-2, 6-3. At times, it really did look like she was “going back and hitting some balls with my eyes closed.” This time, they weren’t landing in. This time, there was no way to disagree with Serena’s self-criticism.

“I was very slow off the mark,” Williams said. “After my serve, I wasn’t moving as well as I should have. You know, I wasn’t in it. I wasn’t Serena today, I think that was the main thing.”

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This was a sluggish Serena, to be sure. As she said, she was caught flat-footed by Kvitova’s drives, and seemed unwilling to adjust to their pace and depth. She never found anything like her range on her forehand. And she was never emotionally engaged in the match. We waited for the fist-pumps and “Come on!”s that Serena typically uses to put a slow start behind her, but aside from a slight rise in grunt volume mid-way through the second set, they never appeared. Serena ended up with 29 errors against just 17 winners, and her one late ray of hope, when she reached break point at 1-4 in the second set, fizzled with a forehand shank.

“I think she just played well today,” Serena said of Kvitova. “I mean, she went for broke on every serve, every return. I hit some second serves, 170, 175 [k.p.h], and she just hit them for winners.”

Kvitova was every bit as good as Serena said, though I didn’t get the feeling she was going for broke any more than she normally does. The Czech, once she had a lead and it was clear Serena was off, even played some old-fashioned topspin rally balls and a delicate slice forehand; everything was working for her. But for the most part she beat Serena by beating her to the punch. Kvitova’s hook lefty serve was as deadly as I’ve ever seen it, and her returns handcuffed Serena. Maybe it was the fact that they were playing on clay, but this match reminded me of Serena’s loss to Garbiñe Muguruza at the French Open last year. Like Muguruza, Kvitova hit her returns deep and down the middle, and put Serena where she so rarely is, on her heels.

What does this mean going forward? While Serena’s first loss of 2015 will garner the headlines, it’s Kvitova’s win that’s of more significance to the WTA field as it heads toward France. I wrote at the start of the week that there was a momentum shift underway in Madrid, and however she does against Svetlana Kuznetsova in the final on Saturday, Kvitova has made herself a leading part of that. You still never know what Petra is going to do from one set to the next, and it's more likely on a slower surface that she’ll eventually slug herself into a bad patch of play. Still, Kvitova grew up on dirt, has won Madrid before, and has reached the semis in Paris. Now, with her first win over Serena, she has shown that she can, literally, beat anyone.

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As for Serena, we shouldn’t doubt her assessments of her clay form anymore. She just got wake-up call number two. I wouldn't expect her to hit the snooze button.

Normally, when one player leads the other 18-4 in the head to head, a prediction is not tough to make. But Nadal vs. Berdych isn’t so easy at the moment. The Czech achieved a long-awaited breakthrough against Rafa at the Australian Open in January, when he beat him for the first time in nine years. And Berdych nearly achieved another long-awaited breakthrough in Monte Carlo last month, when he fell one match short of winning his first Masters event in 10 years. Berdych has reached the final in Madrid in the past, and he likes the quicker conditions there. But I still think he loses to Nadal on clay in Spain. Winner: Nadal

Raise your hand if you predicted this final. When the tournament began, Kvitova was in a slump; halfway through the event, Kuznestova was running on fumes. Yet here they are, the easy conquerors of Serena and Sharapova on Friday. Petra has won three of their four meetings, but Sveta won the last one, 9-7 in the third set at Roland Garros in 2014. This could also be another epic, or another anti-epic. As usual, the result will reside on Kvitova’s racquet. Can she continue her roll, or is she due for a nosedive? She tends to do well on courts where she has won before. Winner: Kvitova

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Murray once owned Nishikori; he won the first seven sets they played. At the World Tour Finals last November, though, a more confident Nishikori broke that streak. Nishikori nearly won this tournament in 2014, and has looked very comfortable there again, especially in his routine 6-4, 6-2 quarterfinal win over David Ferrer. Murray, meanwhile, may have benefited from his 3:00 A.M. finish earlier in the week; he has played with a little less to lose, and a helpful chip on his shoulder, ever since. But Kei was my pick to win the event at the start of the week, and I’m not going to abandon him now. Winner: Nishikori