Week in Preview: The stakes get a little higher in Cincinnati, as Rafael Nadal rejoins the tour for the final Masters 1000 before the year’s final major

Time to reshuffle the decks and play another round. The names will mostly be the same—with one significant addition on the men’s side—in Cincinnati as they were in Toronto and Montreal. The hard courts will be similar, too. But we’ll be one week closer to the US Open, and the stakes will rise accordingly. Here’s a look at how the draws have shaken out at the final Masters 1000 event before the final Grand Slam event of 2022.

Western & Southern Open (ATP) [buy tickets]

~ Cincinnati, Ohio
~ $6,971,275; Masters 1000
~ Hard court
~ Draw is here

The significant addition to the men’s field that I mentioned above is Rafael Nadal, who drops into the draw as the No. 2 seed. One month ago, Rafa had to pull out of the Wimbledon semifinals after tearing an abdominal muscle. He did that in part because he didn’t want to jeopardize his chance to play, and win, a US Open that was likely to be Novak Djokovic-free. We’ll start to get an idea of how possible that is going to be this week. Nadal, who has won this tournament once, in 2013, might play Borna Coric to start; he has Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner in his quarter; and Carlos Alcaraz is in his half.

Speaking of Alcaraz, he’s one-half of the most interesting question hovering over this men’s event: Can the fourth-ranked Spaniard and top-ranked Daniil Medvedev bounce back from early losses in Canada and build some momentum before the Open? Alcaraz has tended to overhit in big moments of late, while Medvedev’s carefully constructed baseline fortress was dismantled with surprising ease by Nick Kyrgios in Montreal. In each of the two years that Medvedev reached the US Open final—2019 and 2021—he won at least one lead-up Masters event. This year he could face hot-hitting Tommy Paul in the third round, and, possibly, either Kyrgios or Andrey Rublev in the quarters.

Player to Watch: Hubert Hurkacz. Coming into Wimbledon, the Pole was one of the favorites to make the semifinals or better; instead, he lost in the first round, and did the same at the Citi Open. But he found his groove again in Montreal. Will his run up north leave him tired or energized for what comes next in Cincy and New York? Either way, he’s put himself back in the dark horse conversation for the Open. In Cincy, he could face Matteo Berrettini in the third round, and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters.

Wild card to watch: Ben Shelton. He’s 19, an NCAA singles champion at the University of Florida, and the son of former pro Bryan Shelton. He’ll start against a qualifier.

First-round matches to watch:

Tommy Paul vs. Jenson Brooksby

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Denis Shapovalov

Kyrgios vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Berrettini vs. Frances Tiafoe

Pablo Carreño Busta vs. Miomir Kecmanovic

Sebastian Korda vs. Karen Khachanov

Andy Murray vs. Stan Wawrinka

Cam Norrie vs. Holger Rune

Western & Southern Open (WTA) [buy tickets]

~ Cincinnati, Ohio
~ $2,527,250; Masters 1000
~ Hard court
~ Draw is here

The name is the same, and so is the Masters 1000 designation, but the purse... not so much. The WTA’s prize-money allocation is a third of the ATP’s here. The Western & Southern Open was recently sold by the USTA to Ben Navarro, father of aspiring pro Emma Navarro. He also owns the WTA event in Charleston, so we’ll see what’s in store for Cincy—money-wise and location-wise—in the near future.

For now, the women’s field looks much the same as it did in Toronto. But the status of the top seed, Iga Swiatek, is a little different. After her third-round loss to Beatriz Haddad Maia last week, Swiatek’s return to earth continues. Just how far will she descend before the Open? She could see some familiar faces in the early rounds, including two players who have beaten her lately, Haddad Maia and Alizé Cornet. Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina are also in her section.

The other high seeds here are Anett Kontaveit, Paula Badosa, Maria Sakkari, Ons Jabeur, Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, and Garbiñe Muguruza. Of those seven players, only Pegula reached the quarterfinals in Toronto, and only Jabeur had a truly successful Wimbledon. Will any of them begin to improve on those results here? Or will the finalists come from outside the Top 10, the way they did in Canada? Every round offers surprises, and no seed is safe, on the WTA Tour these days.

Which means it’s probably better to focus on the early rounds. To start, that focus will be on a pair of Grand Slam champions, 40-year-old Serena Williams and 19-year-old Emma Raducanu, who will face off in the first round. I’m guessing the stands will be full.

Player to Watch: Haddad Maia. Is the 26-year-old Brazilian for real? She looked like it all week in Toronto, in wins over Swiatek, Karolina Pliskova, Belinda Bencic, and Leylah Fernandez. The tall, strong, lefty will try to keep her momentum going when she faces Jelena Ostapenko in her opener in Cincy.

Question Mark: Simona Halep had an excellent week in Toronto, in every way except one: In her last two matches, she reached double digits in double faults each time. Will those yips continue to be a problem for her going forward?

First-round matches to watch:

S. Williams vs. Raducanu

Venus Williams vs. Pliskova

Haddad Maia vs. Ostapenko

Halep vs. Karolina Muchova

Bianca Andreescu vs. Camila Giorgi

Kaia Kanepi vs. Victoria Azarenka

Daria Kasatkina vs. Amanda Anisimova