Weekend Winners: Will Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka's Madrid triumphs foreshadow Roland Garros?

WATCH: Relive the best moments from the Mutua Madrid Open on this episode of The Break.

This was a season-solidifying weekend at the Mutua Madrid Open. The question now is: Was it a foreshadowing one as well?

The winners at the Caja Magica, Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka, are both ranked No. 2 at the moment, but there’s a good case to be made that they’ve been the best players of 2023 so far.

Sabalenka is 29-4 on the year. She has a Grand Slam title and a WTA 1000 title. On Saturday, she faced the tour’s No. 1 player, Iga Swiatek, in a showdown where both players were healthy and giving everything they had over three well-played sets. This time, despite her 2-5 record against Swiatek, Sabalenka proved to be the more fearsome ball-striker and the more resilient competitor.

Alcaraz is 29-2 on the year. He missed the first major, in Australia, but has won two Masters 1000s, on two different surfaces, in Indian Wells and Madrid. In his matches against Top 5 opponents Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, he hasn’t dropped a set. Assuming he plays in Rome this week, Alcaraz will bring an 11-match win streak to the Foro Italico.

Together, Sabalenka and Alcaraz represent the state of the art in the way the game is played and won today. They win free points with their serves, but they also use them to set up their next shots. They hit their forehands with lethal, electric power that no one on their respective tours can match. But their backhands aren’t merely rally shots, either. On Saturday, Sabalenka’s two-hander, which she used equally well for offense and defense, was something that Swiatek couldn’t counter. On Sunday, Alcaraz’s backhand return, which he put at Jan-Lennard Struff’s feet on several key points, was crucial to his win.

But the Spaniard and the Belarusian are more than just ball-striking machines. Each showed a sign of maturity and improvement this weekend.

With Sabalenka, it was her ability to briefly let her nerves overtake her when she had a 3-0 lead in the third, give that lead back, and then win anyway. Last year against Swiatek in the US Open semifinals, she led 4-2 in the third set, before losing four straight games and the match. This time, she kept it together through a long final service game. Even after Swiatek saved three match points, Sabalenka stayed calm enough to fire a forehand winner on the fourth.

Sabalenka is winning because she has learned to contain and channel her emotion, and submerge her nerves. That’s not an easy thing to do after half a dozen years on tour.

As for Alcaraz, he showed improvement in his ability to think tactically and make tiny, match-changing adjustments. After watching Struff pummel his wide, kick second serve in the ad court, Alcaraz began hitting it into the German’s body instead. After watching Struff serve to his backhand and follow it in with success, Alcaraz moved a few steps to his left on his return. He was able to hit a winning forehand return on the next point, and eventually break serve when Struff, thrown off by the move, double faulted.

Sometimes, when Alcaraz has a lead and is trying to close out a set, he can get wild and make errors. This time, with a 4-2 lead in the third, he clamped down on his serve and finished with two love holds. You hear Alcaraz’s coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, say “use your head” to him from the coaches box on occasion. Alcaraz is taking his advice and playing smarter—rather than just spectacular—tennis. He’s usually the man on the attack; in this match, he spent most of his time reacting to Struff’s aggression. But Alcaraz won anyway.

Sabalenka and Alcaraz may not officially be No. 1, but they’ve consolidated their positions at the top of their tours in 2023. Which leads us to the next question: Have they also made themselves the favorites at Roland Garros?

There are reasons to think not. Neither has won, or even made a semifinal, in Paris before. On the men’s side, Rafael Nadal will bring a 112-3 record to Roland Garros, and Novak Djokovic will bring two titles of his own. On the women’s side, Swiatek has two French Opens, and will be the favorite until she is dethroned. But Alcaraz and Sabalenka each fired a shot across the pro-tour bow in Madrid. We’ll see if they hit their targets a few weeks from now in Paris.