What Jannik Sinner’s Rotterdam title, Carlos Alcaraz’s latest loss says about current state of ATP’s future

Last summer, over the final three days at Wimbledon, a new pecking order at the top of men’s tennis seemed to have solidified.

20-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, with his lopsided win over Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, and his epic win over Novak Djokovic in the final, became the first new men’s champion at the tournament in 10 years, the No. 1 player in the world, and the consensus future of the sport. The stratospheric tennis that he and Djokovic were producing together was the talk of the sports world.

At the time, 21-year-old Jannik Sinner could only look on and marvel at Alcaraz and Djokovic like everyone else. The Italian had achieved his own, quieter breakthrough at Wimbledon, by making his first Grand Slam semifinal. But he hadn’t faced a seed in his any of his five wins, and has was soundly beaten by Djokovic in the semis. While Sinner had also produced his share of sublime tennis with Alcaraz in the past, he was still a step behind the more explosive Spaniard in his evolution. I think to most observers of the men’s game, he seemed destined to stay there in the years ahead.

Now we know destiny had other things in store for Sinner.

Fast forward seven months from Wimbledon, and the ATP totem pole has been upended again. Alcaraz is still ranked ahead of Sinner (No. 2 to No. 4), but that’s not how it feels right now. Sinner finished 2023 by beating Djokovic and Medvedev in five of six matches, and leading Italy to its first Davis Cup title since 1976. He has started 2024 by going 12-0 and beating Djokovic again on his way to winning the Australian Open. Alcaraz, meanwhile, is still searching for his first title since Wimbledon.

The differences between the two, in form and confidence, were made clear in their performances this weekend.

In Rotterdam, Sinner won his second title of 2024, and his fifth since the mid-point of 2023. He was the top seed, and all week crowds filled the arena as if he were the No. 1 player in the world. While he didn’t face a seed until the final, he did withstand a couple of pressure situations against inspired opponents. He held off a suddenly in-form Gael Monfils in three sets, and he did the same against home-country favorite Tallon Griekspoor in the semis.

Then Sinner raised his game again in the final. His opponent was No. 5 seed Alex De Minaur, who has been playing the best tennis of his career of late. The Australian did it again for much of this match, as he went toe-to-toe with Sinner for two hours of fast-paced rallies. In each set, De Minaur broke Sinner to level the score, only to see Sinner immediately bounce back and break once more. Time and again, De Minaur did everything he could to win a point, only to see Sinner do something better to take it away from him. No wonder De Minaur spent so much time shaking his head in disbelief at his opponent’s exploits.

“I’m really proud with the level that I played throughout this whole week,” Sinner said in his usual no-nonsense, no-ego style. “We have been in tough situations, but we handled it the right way. We will always try to improve, it’s the most important [thing].”

Meanwhile, 7,000 miles southwest in Buenos Aires, Alcaraz was having a tougher time.

A finalist at this tournament last year, he won his first two matches before facing No. 3 seed Nicolas Jarry in the semis. Alcaraz loves clay, and his trip to South America seemed to offer him a chance to play with more patience than he has shown of late. But that’s not how it worked out in the most important moments against Jarry.

In the first-set tiebreaker, Alcaraz started with a double fault. At 1-1, he tried a delicate, floating backhand pass that caught the tape (“a tiny bit too cute,” one commentator said). He missed his first three first serves, which allowed Jarry to attack. And he finished by putting an easy backhand and an easy forehand into the net. Despite gritting his teeth and making his best effort in the second set, Alcaraz couldn’t find a way back. He lost to Jarry for the first time in three meetings, 7-6 (2), 6-3.

These days, when Sinner needs a shot, he finds it. When Alcaraz needs a shot, he misfires. Sinner’s height helps with his serve, which is more of a bailout weapon than Alcaraz’s. For the ground, the Italian seems to be able to hit as aggressively as he likes without worrying about making errors. The same can’t be said for Alcaraz. Sinner may not have quite as many options to choose from as Alcaraz, but that also keeps him from trying as many risky shots as the Spaniard. Sinner doesn’t go for the spectacular or the beautiful, when the solid will do.

Alcaraz will obviously return to top form. It may even happen this week in Rio, where he won his first 500-level event two years ago. But right now, Sinner is showing that the future of the men’s game could just as well be his.