Which 2022 champion at Indian Wells or Miami can least afford an upset this March?

HIGHLIGHTS: Fritz's win over Nadal in last year's Indian Wells final

Question 2: Of last year’s Sunshine Double champions—Swiatek, Fritz, Alcaraz—whom would you be most concerned about after an early-round loss?

Peter Bodo: Alcaraz, without a doubt. We don’t even know if he will play, given the hamstring injury which led to his Acapulco withdrawal. (Following two final-round runs in two weeks.) Normally, that would keep us from including him here, but given his status and recent history, this is a great big curveball thrown at tennis.

Swiatek and Fritz have been humming along just fine over the past 12 months, and an early-round loss for either would hardly qualify as catastrophic.

Joel Drucker: Fritz, no question. Swiatek and Alcaraz have each won a major (Iga three times) and multiple 1000-level events. But Fritz only won his first Masters 1000 title last year, at Indian Wells. Having lost early in his last two Slam appearances, Fritz is keen to continue generating quality results at big tournaments.

Matt Fitzgerald: Right now, I’m inclined to say Alcaraz. Just over 20 percent of the teen's current point total is built on last year’s Sunshine Double performances, and he has a hamstring issue to contend with as he begins the process of defending a stellar swing of results.

David Kane: Understood to be the game's Next Big Thing, early exits from Alcaraz would derail the Next Gen feeding system the ATP appeared poised to enjoy when the teenager romped to his first major title in New York. How will he look in his first hard-court tournaments of the season?

Stephanie Livaudais: While Alcaraz and Swiatek have more than backed up their 2022 Sunshine Double success—both have since won Grand Slams and been ranked world No. 1—Fritz hasn’t yet reached that level. He’s at risk of being eclipsed by his fast-rising countrymen if he doesn’t make a statement run this month.

Ed McGrogan: Iga, like her idol Rafa, is all about Roland Garros at the end of the day. But that doesn't mean March's big hard-court events shouldn't matter to the US Open champion. Considering the sky-high level she reached last year, an early loss at either event would be a stunner, and a signal that Swiatek's near-invincible aura has faded, if ever slightly. It's a playing plane in which she'd surely like to remain.

Stephen Tignor: Fritz. He developed a new level of confidence with his title here in 2022. If he goes out early in 2023, that confidence could go, too.

Friday's question: If Djokovic doesn’t play in March, how much stock should we put into the results?