Which is more likely: Coco Gauff wins another major, or another American wins her—or his—first?

As we make our way toward the 2024 season—which begins Friday, December 29 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year.

Fifth question: Which is more likely: Coco Gauff wins another major, or another American wins her—or his—first?

Scroll down past this article to read more Burning Questions on 2024.

Saturday's question: Will Novak Djokovic finally get his long-sought Olympic gold medal at Roland Garros?

There are five Americans in the ATP Top 25, and all of them lack a major title. There are three Americans in the WTA Top 12, two of which are still seeking their first Slam win. As it relates to this question, Gauff certainly has competition, so to speak.

But for as much depth as the U.S. has in the pros, I believe it has far fewer bonafide major title contenders. Of the Slamless, I’m still very high on Madison Keys. She’s put herself in position to win a big one for years, having reached six Slam semis since 2015. Motivation shouldn’t be a problem, after her heartbreaking defeat at the US Open, where she twice served for a spot in the final against Aryna Sabalenka (who lost the first set 6-0). Nerves will always be part of the equation for Keys, but I can envision her breaking through—much like Gauff did last year.

Coco enters 2024 with a huge burden off her shoulders, but at the same time dealing with greater expectations. Like Keys, she’s an all-surface threat and could be back in the major winner’s circle before you know it. But Keys’ highs, along with the potential for deep runs by Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz and Jessica Pegula, compels me to side with the latter in this question. For U.S. tennis fans, it’s a great problem to have.—Ed McGrogan

It feels like typical tennis: a year spent meditating on the onslaught of U.S. men, ending with Coco Gauff fulfilling her Grand Slam destiny and kicking off another successful era for American women. Where the trio of Fritz, Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe—not to mention the insurgent threat from Shelton—impress with their quantity, no one U.S. man has seemed capable of breaking the European monopoly on majors that appears poised to continue with the ascension of Carlos Alcaraz.

At least Paul can claim a rivalry with the young Spaniard, something that, combined with his semifinal finish at the 2023 Australian Open, can be reasonably spun into a contender narrative. But Paul lost rather limply to Shelton in Flushing Meadows, and it's the youngest and least experienced of the contingent who takes the lion's share of American mojo into the off-season.

The question seems more likely in Gauff's hands than any of her ATP peers: can Gauff make lightning strike twice in 2024? Her renewed confidence was essential to her endless summer vacation that included titles in Washington, D.C. and Cincinnati before storming to victory at the US Open. Much was made about her technical improvements, but Gauff largely won her first major by playing the game she always had, better than ever. Will her more powerful rivals figure that out in time for next season? Even if they do, Coco's sprawling self-belief is something a Fritz or Paul would do well to emulate if they ever wish to break through.—David Kane

Gauff now knows what it takes to get it done over a fortnight—how to pace herself, how to find new ways to win, how to deal with circumstances beyond her control and ultimately, how to turn fear into courage.

After the way she carried herself for two weeks at Flushing Meadows, all respect leans toward Gauff here. At 20, she's still yet to begin her peak years, a consideration among many that shouldn't be ignored.

Gauff now knows what it takes to get it done over a fortnight—how to pace herself, how to find new ways to win, how to deal with circumstances beyond her control and ultimately, how to turn fear into courage. The next two highest-ranked American women—Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys—are certainly capable of delivering across multiple surfaces, though have big-match barriers to overcome (Pegula is 0-6 in major quarterfinals; Keys is 1-5 in major semifinals).

No active American on the ATP Tour has contested a major singles final—we’re approaching a 15-year drought overall. And in a world where Novak Djokovic is still cleaning up at the Grand Slam events, Alcaraz has emerged as a multiple major winner, Daniil Medvedev has contested a combined five Aussie Open and US Open finals, Jannik Sinner is primed to make a giant leap and Rafael Nadal’s return is a question mark that can go either way, today Gauff is respectively a stronger bet to replicate her New York magic over one of her countrymen stringing together seven wins.—Matt Fitzgerald